London & NY Research

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    Daiwa Europe’s market-leading research on the Japanese economy.

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    Daiwa’s research coverage of the euro area and UK economies.

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    Daiwa’s coverage of the US economy from our colleagues in New York

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2023

2022

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  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    7 February 2023 414 KB PDF
    • Despite weak German IP data, Bunds made notable losses after the ECB announced it will adjust the interest rate ceiling paid on government deposits within the Eurosystem from 1 May, while Bundesbank President Nagel stated that further significant ECB rate hikes were likely after March.
    • Gilts made more significant losses even as UK surveys on retail sales and house prices disappointed.
  • US Data Review

    US Data Review

    7 February 2023 352 KB PDF
    • International trade: softer exports, firmer imports, wider deficit in December; But improvement in Q4
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    6 February 2023 434 KB PDF
    • Bunds followed the global trend lower as German factory orders beat expectations, but euro area retail sales fell sharply in December.
    • Gilts made large losses as MPC hawk Catherine Mann noted that risks to the BoE’s inflation forecast are skewed significantly to the upside, and reiterated that the next step in Bank Rate is more likely to be a hike than a cut.
  • European Banks - Credit Update

    European Banks - Credit Update

    6 February 2023 1158 KB PDF
    • 4Q22 earnings results of European banks have so far mostly been positive, exceeding consensus analyst views. The profit outlook remains firm in light of the constructive rates environment
    • Primary markets largely muted for FIGs as the earnings season continued, with a few SSA deals continuing to supply the market with Sterling bonds
    • Secondary market spreads tightened in EUR and USD as market optimism about the inflation and rate outlook improved
  • US Data Review

    US Data Review

    3 February 2023 224 KB PDF
    • Employment: strong payroll growth
    • Growth of average hourly earnings decelerates, but still brisk
    • ISM services: back within a comfortable range
  • US Economic Comment

    US Economic Comment

    3 February 2023 287 KB PDF
    • Productivity: the neglected piece of the inflation puzzle
    • What was Powell’s message?
    • The strong (even remarkable) labor market
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    2 February 2023 653 KB PDF
    • Euro area govvies made big gains, as the ECB raised rates by 50bps today, stated that it intends to hike by a further 50bps in March, but also judged the inflation outlook to be ‘more balanced’.
    • Gilts also rallied as the BoE raised rates by a further 50bps but suggested that the end of the tightening cycle might be near.
  • US Data Review

    US Data Review

    2 February 2023 216 KB PDF
    • Nonfarm productivity: solid advance in Q4, but a soft performance for 2022 as a whole
    • Factory orders: noise from aircraft and petroleum; mixed elsewhere