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7 February 2023
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- Despite weak German IP data, Bunds made notable losses after the ECB announced it will adjust the interest rate ceiling paid on government deposits within the Eurosystem from 1 May, while Bundesbank President Nagel stated that further significant ECB rate hikes were likely after March.
- Gilts made more significant losses even as UK surveys on retail sales and house prices disappointed.
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7 February 2023
352 KB
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- International trade: softer exports, firmer imports, wider deficit in December; But improvement in Q4
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6 February 2023
434 KB
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- Bunds followed the global trend lower as German factory orders beat expectations, but euro area retail sales fell sharply in December.
- Gilts made large losses as MPC hawk Catherine Mann noted that risks to the BoE’s inflation forecast are skewed significantly to the upside, and reiterated that the next step in Bank Rate is more likely to be a hike than a cut.
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6 February 2023
1158 KB
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- 4Q22 earnings results of European banks have so far mostly been positive, exceeding consensus analyst views. The profit outlook remains firm in light of the constructive rates environment
- Primary markets largely muted for FIGs as the earnings season continued, with a few SSA deals continuing to supply the market with Sterling bonds
- Secondary market spreads tightened in EUR and USD as market optimism about the inflation and rate outlook improved
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3 February 2023
224 KB
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- Employment: strong payroll growth
- Growth of average hourly earnings decelerates, but still brisk
- ISM services: back within a comfortable range
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3 February 2023
287 KB
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- Productivity: the neglected piece of the inflation puzzle
- What was Powell’s message?
- The strong (even remarkable) labor market
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2 February 2023
653 KB
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- Euro area govvies made big gains, as the ECB raised rates by 50bps today, stated that it intends to hike by a further 50bps in March, but also judged the inflation outlook to be ‘more balanced’.
- Gilts also rallied as the BoE raised rates by a further 50bps but suggested that the end of the tightening cycle might be near.
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2 February 2023
216 KB
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- Nonfarm productivity: solid advance in Q4, but a soft performance for 2022 as a whole
- Factory orders: noise from aircraft and petroleum; mixed elsewhere
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