London & NY Research

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    Daiwa Europe’s market-leading research on the Japanese economy.

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    Daiwa’s research coverage of the euro area and UK economies.

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    Daiwa’s coverage of the US economy from our colleagues in New York

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2024

2023

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  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    3 April 2024 278 KB PDF
    • While the flash March estimate of euro area inflation surprised slightly to the downside, shorter-dated Bunds made modest losses as services inflation remained sticky at double the ECB’s 2% target.
    • Gilts made gains on a quiet day for UK economic releases.
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    2 April 2024 289 KB PDF
    • Longer-dated Bunds followed USTs lower even as German inflation fell more than expected in March, with the core CPI rate down to a two-year low.
    • Despite a marked slowdown in a survey measure of UK shop price inflation, Gilts also made sizable losses in line with the global trend as UK mortgage approvals rose the most since September 2022.
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    28 March 2024 370 KB PDF
    • Despite a downside surprise to German retail sales and subdued euro area bank lending, shorter-dated Bunds made modest losses as German negotiated wage growth accelerated sharply.
    • Shorter-dated Gilts also made modest losses even as updated UK national accounts confirmed a technical recession in H223.
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    27 March 2024 280 KB PDF
    • While the Commission survey signalled a return to very modest GDP growth in Q1, Bunds made gains as the survey’s price expectations indices fell and ECB Governing Council member Cipollone suggested there should be scope to cut interest rates “swiftly”.
    • Gilts also made gains on a quiet day for top-tier UK data.  
  • US Data Review

    US Data Review

    26 March 2024 374 KB PDF
    • Durable goods orders: sideways trend in orders ex-transportation; shipments data suggests drag from equipment spending on GDP growth in Q1
    • Consumer confidence: little changed from downward-revised reading
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    22 March 2024 317 KB PDF
    • While the German ifo survey flagged an improved business climate at end-Q1, Bunds made gains as Bundesbank President Nagel suggested that rates could possibly be cut in June.
    • Gilts also made gains as UK retail sales were unchanged in February, and the GfK survey suggested a decline in purchase intentions in March.
  • US Economic Comment

    US Economic Comment

    22 March 2024 545 KB PDF
    • Forecast update: avoiding recession, at least for now
    • Monetary policy: sticky inflation prevents more forceful near-term cuts, while the outlook for rates remains highly uncertain
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    21 March 2024 326 KB PDF
    • Bunds made gains as the flash euro area PMIs signalled further economic stabilisation in March but ongoing contraction in the German economy.
    • While the BoE kept rates unchanged and the flash UK PMIs signalled ongoing recovery momentum, Gilts made gains as no MPC member voted for a rate hike for the first time since September 2021.