London & NY Research

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    Daiwa Europe’s market-leading research on the Japanese economy.

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    Daiwa’s research coverage of the euro area and UK economies.

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    Daiwa’s coverage of the US economy from our colleagues in New York

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2023

2022

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  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    17 January 2023 475 KB PDF
    • While the ZEW survey signalled much improved expectations for German economic activity and inflation, euro area government bonds made significant gains as a Bloomberg report suggested the ECB would consider a slowing in the pace of rate hikes in March.
    • Gilts made smaller gains as UK pay accelerated amid a still-tight labour market.
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    13 January 2023 347 KB PDF

    Bunds were little changed as a rebound in euro area IP in November was confirmed, while German full-year GDP data pointed to resilience in Q4.

    Gilts made losses as UK GDP beat expectations in November, eking out a second-successive month of growth.

  • US Economic Comment

    US Economic Comment

    13 January 2023 303 KB PDF
    • Consumer prices: some encouraging news, but still some concerns
    • Probably a slower pace of tightening, but the Fed is most likely not done
    • The outlook for rents: favorable (maybe)
  • US Data Review

    US Data Review

    12 January 2023 154 KB PDF
    • Headline CPI: weak energy prices, cooling in the food component
    • Core CPI: soft goods prices, rent-led advance in service prices
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    10 January 2023 496 KB PDF
    • Bunds made losses as ECB Executive Board hawk Schnabel suggested interest rates will need to rise significantly to be sufficiently restrictive to return inflation back to target.
    • Gilts also made modest losses as a retail sales survey implied a better end to the year for UK retailers, but a separate survey suggested a significant softening in the labour market.
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    9 January 2023 415 KB PDF
    • Bunds made losses as euro area unemployment numbers suggested ongoing resilience in the labour market, while German IP posted modest growth as energy-intensive output stabilised.
    • Gilts underperformed as BoE Chief Economist Pill flagged his concerns about potential risks of persisting inflationary pressures.
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    6 January 2023 627 KB PDF
    • Euro area govvies followed USTs higher as euro area headline inflation fell to a four-month low, the Commission’s price expectations indices moderated and German factory orders plunged.
    • Gilts also made large gains as the UK construction PMIs signalled the steepest contraction in the sector since May 2020.  
  • US Data Review

    US Data Review

    6 January 2023 200 KB PDF
    • Employment: solid payroll growth; drop in unemployment rate
    • Growth of average earnings slows from brisk underlying average