London & NY Research

  • JAPAN

    Daiwa Europe’s market-leading research on the Japanese economy.

  • EUROPE

    Daiwa’s research coverage of the euro area and UK economies.

  • US

    Daiwa’s coverage of the US economy from our colleagues in New York

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2025

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  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    6 October 2025 326 KB PDF
    • After spreads of OATs over Bunds rose to the highest levels for the year, French PM Lecornu was given until Wednesday evening to reach a new political agreement with opposition parties.
    • Gilts made losses while the UK construction PMI rose to a three-month high despite ongoing caution ahead of the government’s end-November Budget.
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    3 October 2025 335 KB PDF
    • Bunds made modest losses as political uncertainty continued to dominate the news flow in France and data suggested that the industrial sector supported French GDP growth in Q3.
    • Gilts made gains after a big downwards revision to the final UK PMIs implied that economic growth might have ground to a halt.
  • US Economic Comment

    US Economic Comment

    3 October 2025 382 KB PDF
    • Government shutdown: acrimony between parties raises possibility of a protracted disruption; long-term impact likely to be limited, although current standstill increases prospects for near-term Fed easing
    • The employment situation: although the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ report for September was postponed, ancillary metrics ratify policymakers’ concern about downside risks to the labor market
    • Additional insights on the economy: ISM data for September carry a soft tone
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    2 October 2025 284 KB PDF
    • While the euro area jobless rate edged up from the series low, longer-dated bunds made modest gains.
    • Gilts closed slightly lower while the BoE’s DMP survey reported an uptick in business inflation expectations but maintained expectations for weaker jobs and wage growth.
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    1 October 2025 280 KB PDF
    • While euro area inflation rose to a five-month high, Lagarde suggested that risks to consumer prices were quite contained allowing Bunds to follow USTs slightly higher.
    • Gilts also made modest gains on a quiet day for UK economic news.
  • US Data Review

    US Data Review

    1 October 2025 214 KB PDF
    • ISM manufacturing: rebound in production leads improvement in composite though still signaling contraction; prices remain elevated
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    30 September 2025 328 KB PDF
    • Bunds were little changed, despite an upside surprise to German inflation, which rose to a 7-month high on prices of fuel and services.
    • Gilts closed the day little changed while updated national accounts data suggested that the UK economy was larger than previously estimated and a survey showed shop price inflation up to an 18-month high.  
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    29 September 2025 298 KB PDF
    • Bunds followed USTs higher while the Commission survey pointed to economic resilience in the euro area at the end of Q3 but minimal pickup in growth momentum.
    • Despite a pickup in UK bank lending, Gilts outperformed after BoE Deputy Governor Ramsden intimated that he might back a rate cut by year-end and government ministers refused to rule out manifesto-breaking tax hikes.