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    Daiwa Europe’s market-leading research on the Japanese economy.

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    Daiwa’s research coverage of the euro area and UK economies.

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    Daiwa’s coverage of the US economy from our colleagues in New York

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2023

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  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    6 September 2023 274 KB PDF
    • Although German factory orders fell the most since 2020 and euro area retail sales also declined, Bunds followed USTs lower as some of the traditionally hawkish members of the ECB Governing Council suggested they might support a rate hike next week.
    • While the UK construction PMIs remained consistent with growth in the sector, Gilts outperformed as BoE Governor Bailey stated that rates are now “near the top of the cycle”.
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    5 September 2023 284 KB PDF
    • While euro area PPI inflation dropped to a 14-year low and the euro area services PMIs flagged recession risks, Bunds followed USTs lower as a survey reported a pickup in medium-term consumer inflation expectations.
    • Gilts also made losses as the UK headline services PMI was revised up and a retail survey beat expectations.
  • European Banks - Credit Update

    European Banks - Credit Update

    4 September 2023 725 KB PDF
    • UBS group 2Q23 results show impact of Credit Suisse integration and outlines restructuring path ahead with focus on cost savings. ‘Record’ profit generated due to negative goodwill effect. 
    • Primary market activity muted for SSAs with just a handful of trades while FIGs saw a host of activity across payment ranks and currencies. Santander’s non-call didn’t impact other AT1 issuance. 
    • Secondary market spreads were mixed for EUR and USD. Spreads were impacted by the UBS earnings presentation, resulting in tightening for Swiss entities.
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    1 September 2023 312 KB PDF
    • Bunds made losses even as the final August manufacturing PMIs again highlighted ongoing weakness in the sector and an ifo survey suggested that German auto manufacturers are increasingly downbeat.
    • Despite soft manufacturing PMIs and a further big drop in house prices, Gilts also made losses as the level of UK GDP was revised up significantly.
  • US Economic Comment

    US Economic Comment

    1 September 2023 554 KB PDF
    • August employment: continued improvement in supply-demand imbalances
    • Supplementary labor market data: supporting evidence of softening conditions
    • Inflation update: two percent not yet assured
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    31 August 2023 318 KB PDF
    • Bunds made gains as the flash August estimate of euro area headline inflation was unchanged from July but the core rate fell back.
    • Gilts also made gains as BoE Chief Economist Pill suggested that he didn’t see the need for much more monetary tightening.
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    30 August 2023 333 KB PDF
    • While the Commission sentiment survey flagged recession risks, Bunds made losses as the flash estimate of German headline inflation in August edged only slightly lower and the core rate remained unchanged, while euro area business and consumer price expectations picked up.
    • Gilts made modest gains at the shorter end of the curve as UK net lending to households remained very subdued.
  • US Data Review

    US Data Review

    30 August 2023 374 KB PDF
    • Revised Q2 GDP: downward adjustment
    • Price indexes: GDP price index and PCE price indexes revised lower
    • International trade: wider goods deficit in July