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    Daiwa Europe’s market-leading research on the Japanese economy.

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    Daiwa’s research coverage of the euro area and UK economies.

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    Daiwa’s coverage of the US economy from our colleagues in New York

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2024

2023

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  • US Economic Comment

    US Economic Comment

    5 February 2024 556 KB PDF
    • January employment: robust payroll growth; benchmark revisions had little effect on recent trends
    • Household data: suggestive of ongoing tight labor market conditions
    • Wage growth: strong, but likely influenced by inclement weather
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    5 February 2024 269 KB PDF
    • Bunds followed USTs lower even as German goods export and imports fell sharply and euro area PPI inflation remained firmly in negative territory in December.
    • Gilts also made losses, while revised ONS labour force survey results saw a lower than previously estimated UK unemployment rate but also a weaker employment rate.
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    1 February 2024 376 KB PDF
    • Shorter-dated Bunds made losses, while longer-dated Bunds made gains as the flash estimates for euro area inflation edged lower in January to extend the disinflationary trend but unemployment remained at a series low.
    • Gilts made gains as the BoE removed the tightening bias from its policy statement, but suggested more evidence was required before cutting rates as it forecast only a gradual return to its inflation target.
  • US FOMC Review

    US FOMC Review

    1 February 2024 266 KB PDF
    • FOMC: policy rate maintained at a range of 5.25 to 5.50 percent, but statement abandoned its explicit tightening bias
    • Powell's press conference: focused on sustainable return to two percent inflation; path of policy contingent on incoming data; March pivot is not the Committee's "base case"
    • Quantitative tightening: currently on track in its current permutation; more in-depth discussion of balance-sheet policy to occur in March
  • US Data Review

    US Data Review

    31 January 2024 344 KB PDF
    • Employment cost index: moderation in compensation costs in Q4
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    31 January 2024 291 KB PDF
    • Bunds followed USTs sharply higher as the flash January German and French inflation estimates moderated a touch more than expected, while German retail sales fell to the lowest level since February 2021.
    • Gilts also followed the global trend higher, even as the UK Nationwide house price report pointed to further stabilisation at the start of 2024.
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    30 January 2024 315 KB PDF
    • Bunds made losses as euro area GDP narrowly avoided a second successive quarterly contraction in Q4 and the Commission survey suggested a pickup in inflation expectations in January.
    • Gilts also made losses despite a sharp drop in a UK survey measure of inflation in January.
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    26 January 2024 366 KB PDF
    • Despite a sharp deterioration in German consumer confidence, Bunds followed USTs lower as euro area bank lending picked up slightly.
    • Gilts made gains despite an improvement in UK consumer confidence to a two-year high.