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2020

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  • US Data Review

    US Data Review

    14 July 2020 154 KB PDF
    • CPI: energy prices jump; pandemic-related discounting begins to unwind
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    14 July 2020 281 KB PDF
    • Bunds made gains as an investor survey suggested that confidence in the German economic outlook has softened somewhat.
    • Gilts also made gains as UK GDP data for May were significantly weaker than expected.
  • European Banks – Credit Update

    European Banks – Credit Update

    13 July 2020 654 KB PDF
    • The Q2 earnings season starts this week with the Nordic and American banks – we expect most large trading houses to perform well, whilst provisioning levels remain uncertain.
    • Lloyds’ departing CEO has materially strengthened the bank’s credit profile, yet its interest rate sensitivity will present a challenge in the new environment.
    • Primary markets were mostly quiet over the past week, with less than a handful of issuers targeting lower- ranked paper; the trend in the secondary market was mixed. 
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    10 July 2020 513 KB PDF
    • Bunds followed USTs higher even as French and Italian industrial production data beat expectations.
    • Gilts also made gains on a quiet end to the week for UK economic news.
  • US Economic Comment

    US Economic Comment

    10 July 2020 552 KB PDF
    • Covid acceleration: modest economic fallout thus far
    • Fed balance sheet: favorable shrinkage, perhaps the Fed has done too much
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    9 July 2020 347 KB PDF
    • Bunds made gains as German goods trade data disappointed expectations.
    • Gilts made gains as doubts were raised over the macroeconomic boost from yesterday’s new UK fiscal policy package and a survey suggested ongoing downwards pressure on house prices.
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    7 July 2020 266 KB PDF
    • Despite a softer-than-expected rise in German IP, Bunds made losses as ECB Board member Schnabel noted that the euro area recession could be shallower than expected and the Bank of France revised up its assessment of economic output.
    • Gilts made modest gains on a quiet day for economic news out of the UK.
  • European Banks - Credit Update

    European Banks - Credit Update

    6 July 2020 656 KB PDF
    • The ECB’s guide on bank mergers published last week brought additional clarity to inform further banking sector consolidation in Europe, yet significant barriers remain.
    • News of a potential NPL sale from Unicredit may confirm the resilience of the NPL market in Italy despite the pandemic, a welcome development for the local banking sector.
    • Markets started last week rather quietly, but rallied somewhat on Thursday on the back of better than expected job figures in the U.S.