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20 September 2023
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- Ahead of this evening’s FOMC announcement, Bunds made modest gains as German producer price inflation fell to a record low.
- Gilts outperformed as UK inflation fell much more than expected, with the core rate down by the most in three years, opening the door significantly wider to a dovish BoE policy stance.
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20 September 2023
376 KB
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- FOMC: target range for the federal funds rate unchanged from July at 5.25 to 5.50 percent
- SEP: upward adjustment to growth; unemployment rate projections lower; inflation to target in 2026
- Dot Plot: signaling add’l hike of 25 basis points in 2023 and less easing in 2024-25
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19 September 2023
269 KB
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- Bunds made losses even as euro area headline inflation was revised slightly lower in August, while most measures of underlying price pressures continued to improve.
- Gilts bucked the global trend making modest gains on a quiet day for UK economic news.
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15 September 2023
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- FOMC preview: a hawkish pause with new dot plot potentially signaling fewer cuts in out years
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14 September 2023
313 KB
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- Bunds rallied as the ECB raised rates but signalled the likelihood that the peak in rates has been reached.
- Gilts also rallied as a UK residential property market survey indicated an acceleration in house price declines over the summer.
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13 September 2023
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- As a report suggested that the ECB would revise up its 2024 inflation projection tomorrow, Bunds made losses despite a larger-than-expected fall in euro area industrial production in July.
- Gilts rallied as UK GDP fell further than expected in July.
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12 September 2023
290 KB
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- Bunds made modest losses as a German survey signalled that investors are a touch less downbeat about the outlook despite increased expectations of contraction in Q3.
- Despite UK wage growth remaining very high, Gilts made gains as today’s labour market data reported the steepest drop in employment since the first wave of the pandemic and, before that, the global financial crisis.
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8 September 2023
555 KB
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- Forecast update: brisk near-term growth, but odds still favor recession next year
- Monetary policy: FOMC to maintain restrictive policy “for some time” to combat sticky inflation
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