London & NY Research

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    Daiwa Europe’s market-leading research on the Japanese economy.

  • EUROPE

    Daiwa’s research coverage of the euro area and UK economies.

  • US

    Daiwa’s coverage of the US economy from our colleagues in New York

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2025

2024

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  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    28 January 2025 321 KB PDF
    • While the ECB’s Bank Lending Survey reported an unwelcome tightening of credit conditions and stagnant demand for business loans, Bunds followed USTs lower. 
    • Gilts were also weaker as a survey suggested that deflation on the UK high street moderated somewhat at the start of the year.
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    27 January 2025 252 KB PDF
    • While the ifo survey suggested that the German business climate stabilised at the start of the year, Bunds made gains as the outlook for the coming six months was judged to have worsened.
    • Gilts followed USTs higher on a quiet day for UK economic news.
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    24 January 2025 437 KB PDF
    • Bunds made losses as the flash euro area PMIs beat expectations in January, despite still signalling ongoing stagnation in economic output at the start of 2025.
    • Gilts ended the day little changed as the UK flash PMIs were also better than expected but signalled further declines in employment, while other surveys reported weak consumer sentiment and retail sales at the start of the year.
  • US Economic Comment

    US Economic Comment

    24 January 2025 379 KB PDF
    • Fed Preview: a tonal shift by policymakers, along with data developments, point to no change in the federal funds rate
    • Growth in 2024: Q4 GDP potentially softer than consensus, but firm performance expected for the year
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    23 January 2025 293 KB PDF
    • Bunds were little changed as surveys suggested that euro area consumer confidence and French business sentiment remained very subdued at the start of the year.
    • Gilts outperformed, particularly at the shorter end of the curve following a downbeat UK manufacturing survey and after Chancellor Rachel Reeves signalled her readiness to tighten fiscal policy in March if necessary to ensure that she remains on track to meet her budgetary rules.
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    21 January 2025 287 KB PDF
    • Bunds made modest gains as the ZEW survey inevitably reported that investors remain very downbeat about German economic conditions at the start of the year.
    • Despite a pickup in private sector pay growth, Gilts made larger gains as data showed that the UK labour market continues to loosen with a rising unemployment rate and falling payroll employment and vacancies.
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    20 January 2025 270 KB PDF
    • Bunds made modest gains as euro area construction activity rose to the highest level since July 2023, but building work in Germany and France fell to multi-year lows.
    • Gilts were little changed on a quiet day for UK economic news.
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    17 January 2025 392 KB PDF
    • Bunds were little changed as final euro area inflation data confirmed a rise in the headline HICP rate in December to a five-month high, but unchanged core inflation and the softest services inflation momentum for more than three years.
    • Gilts outperformed as UK retail sales disappointed expectations in December to record the steepest quarterly decline in a year.