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22 November 2022
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- Bunds made modest gains despite an upside surprise to the Commission’s flash consumer confidence indicator, while a BoF retail sales survey signalled a sharp decline in spending at the start of Q4.
- Gilts followed USTs higher on a quiet day for top-tier UK data releases.
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21 November 2022
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- European banks TLTRO repayments fall short of expectations but could pick up in coming months
- Delay to full implementation of Basel III regulation will provide European banks with some capital respite. However, future requirements as calculated by the EBA are already mostly met
- Strong primary market activity among SSAs and FIGs as issuers take advantage of more benign funding conditions. Banks issued across a variety of currencies and payment ranks as secondary market spreads tightened following a better than expected U.S. CPI read
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18 November 2022
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- Bunds made modest gains while ECB early TLTRO repayments were at the lower end of expectations.
- Gilts made losses even as UK retail sales figures maintained a downwards trend at the start of Q4 and consumer confidence remained near historical lows.
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18 November 2022
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- Economic forecasters: hoping for a soft landing
- Inflation expectations: still contained in the long run; creeping up in the short run
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17 November 2022
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- Despite a slight downwards revision to euro area inflation in October, Bunds followed the global trend lower.
- Gilts also made losses as the UK government’s fiscal update suggested that the lion’s share of its planned fiscal consolidation will be back-loaded to after the next election.
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16 November 2022
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- Bunds made large gains while Bank of France Governor Villeroy noted that while further tightening was likely, jumbo rate hikes will not become the norm.
- Gilts also rallied, even as UK inflation beat expectations jumping to its highest rate since 1982.
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16 November 2022
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- Retail sales: solid activity
- Industrial production: stalling
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15 November 2022
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- Longer-dated Bunds followed USTs higher, as data confirmed that euro area GDP and employment growth slowed in Q3, but Germany’s ZEW investor survey surprised on the upside in November.
- Gilts also made gains despite UK data suggesting a very tight labour market amid rising inactivity and an acceleration in underlying wage growth.
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