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2021

2020

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  • US Data Review

    US Data Review

    10 December 2020 230 KB PDF
    • CPI: pandemic-related reversals.
    • Unemployment claims: marked increases.
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    10 December 2020 377 KB PDF
    • The euro strengthened and Bunds made modest losses as the ECB’s policy announcements failed to exceed market expectations.
    • While UK GDP posted another month of growth in October, sterling depreciated and Gilts rallied again after last night’s dinner between von der Leyen and Johnson set Sunday as the new deadline for a deal.
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    9 December 2020 355 KB PDF
    • Ahead of tomorrow’s long-awaited ECB policy announcements, Bunds ended the day little changed despite further solid German export data.
    • Gilts were also little changed ahead of this evening’s Brussels Brexit dinner between the UK PM and Commission President.
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    8 December 2020 498 KB PDF
    • Bunds made gains despite an upbeat ZEW investor survey and an upwards revision to the estimate of euro area job growth in Q3.
    • Gilts also made further gains but sterling remained off yesterday’s lows as the UK government withdrew its Internal Markets Bill clauses inconsistent with international law and also started its Covid-19 vaccine programme.
  • US Economic Comment

    US Economic Comment

    7 December 2020 303 KB PDF
    • The November employment report: not so bad.
    • Bank profits: an encouraging sign.
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    7 December 2020 324 KB PDF
    • Bunds and other European government bonds made gains despite strong German industrial production data and an improved survey of euro area investor sentiment.
    • While Johnson and von der Leyen were holding another call to try to find a solution, Gilts made significant gains as the EU-UK negotiations remained deadlocked and seemingly at risk of collapse.
  • European Banks - Credit Update

    European Banks - Credit Update

    7 December 2020 758 KB PDF
    • European banking sector consolidation is picking up in an effort to rein in costs and improve weak profitability, a process accelerated by the pandemic and its adverse economic effects.
    • New capital requirements in Sweden are likely to make dividend payouts and AT1 coupons less desirable while the central bank sets first of its kind sustainability standards for asset purchases.
    • Adequate primary market activity with some debut ESG-themed bonds and opportunistic issuance by sub-investment grade borrowers. While market conditions remain favourable, outlook for spreads remains uncertain due to the pandemic, vaccine news and Brexit risks.
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    4 December 2020 516 KB PDF
    • Despite a weak construction sector survey, Bunds made losses at the longer end as German factory orders leapt above their pre-pandemic level.
    • While UK car registrations fell sharply, sterling strengthened and Gilts made losses as hopes rose that agreement between the EU and UK might be reached this weekend.