London & NY Research

  • JAPAN

    Daiwa Europe’s market-leading research on the Japanese economy.

  • EUROPE

    Daiwa’s research coverage of the euro area and UK economies.

  • US

    Daiwa’s coverage of the US economy from our colleagues in New York

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2024

2023

  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    12 April 2024 360 KB PDF
    • Bunds followed USTs higher on increased geopolitical risks from the Middle East while detailed German inflation data for March suggested that the persistence in services was in large part related to the timing of Easter.
    • Despite a second successive month of positive UK GDP growth, Gilts also rallied while former Fed Chair Bernanke flagged deficiencies in the BoE’s production and use of its macroeconomic projections.
  • US Economic Comment

    US Economic Comment

    12 April 2024 570 KB PDF
    • Revised fed funds call: two cuts in 2024 followed by quarterly reductions in 2025 
    • The latest inflation data require vigilance
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    11 April 2024 276 KB PDF
    • Bunds followed the global trend lower even as the ECB signalled that the June policy meeting is live for a first rate cut, albeit with the decision inevitably still data dependent.
    • Gilts also made losses as surveys suggested further stabilisation in the UK’s housing market, while household demand for loans increased in the first quarter of the year.
  • US Data Review

    US Data Review

    10 April 2024 385 KB PDF
    • CPI: jump in energy & pressure in core services
    • The March CPI suggests the FOMC on hold until at least June
  • US FOMC Review

    US FOMC Review

    10 April 2024 249 KB PDF
    • FOMC minutes: significant progress on inflation, although recent readings firmer than expected 
    • The Fed’s balance sheet: likely upcoming changes to QT
    • Staff projections: uncertainty around baseline projections “diminished substantially” 
    • In light of the March CPI, potential cuts may be delayed further
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    9 April 2024 311 KB PDF
    • Bunds followed USTs higher while the ECB’s Bank Lending Survey reported a further drop in demand for business loans amid a further tightening of credit standards.
    • Gilts also made gains despite a firm survey of UK retail sales.
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    8 April 2024 232 KB PDF
    • Bunds made losses as German industrial production data beat expectations and the Sentix survey pointed to a further significant improvement in investor perceptions of the economic outlook.
    • Gilts made somewhat smaller losses as the KPMG/REC survey of recruitment consultants reported that UK pay growth continues to moderate amid a rise in candidate availability and a decline in recruitment activity.
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    5 April 2024 345 KB PDF
    • Bunds followed USTs lower despite some soft data for euro area retail sales and German factory orders and weak construction PMIs.
    • Gilts also made losses while the UK construction PMIs suggested some stabilisation in activity at the end of Q1.