London & NY Research

  • JAPAN

    Daiwa Europe’s market-leading research on the Japanese economy.

  • EUROPE

    Daiwa’s research coverage of the euro area and UK economies.

  • US

    Daiwa’s coverage of the US economy from our colleagues in New York

FILTER DOCUMENTS

Category Clear
Archive Reset

2024

2023

Subscribe to RSS feed
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    1 February 2024 376 KB PDF
    • Shorter-dated Bunds made losses, while longer-dated Bunds made gains as the flash estimates for euro area inflation edged lower in January to extend the disinflationary trend but unemployment remained at a series low.
    • Gilts made gains as the BoE removed the tightening bias from its policy statement, but suggested more evidence was required before cutting rates as it forecast only a gradual return to its inflation target.
  • US FOMC Review

    US FOMC Review

    1 February 2024 266 KB PDF
    • FOMC: policy rate maintained at a range of 5.25 to 5.50 percent, but statement abandoned its explicit tightening bias
    • Powell's press conference: focused on sustainable return to two percent inflation; path of policy contingent on incoming data; March pivot is not the Committee's "base case"
    • Quantitative tightening: currently on track in its current permutation; more in-depth discussion of balance-sheet policy to occur in March
  • US Data Review

    US Data Review

    31 January 2024 344 KB PDF
    • Employment cost index: moderation in compensation costs in Q4
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    31 January 2024 291 KB PDF
    • Bunds followed USTs sharply higher as the flash January German and French inflation estimates moderated a touch more than expected, while German retail sales fell to the lowest level since February 2021.
    • Gilts also followed the global trend higher, even as the UK Nationwide house price report pointed to further stabilisation at the start of 2024.
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    30 January 2024 315 KB PDF
    • Bunds made losses as euro area GDP narrowly avoided a second successive quarterly contraction in Q4 and the Commission survey suggested a pickup in inflation expectations in January.
    • Gilts also made losses despite a sharp drop in a UK survey measure of inflation in January.
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    26 January 2024 366 KB PDF
    • Despite a sharp deterioration in German consumer confidence, Bunds followed USTs lower as euro area bank lending picked up slightly.
    • Gilts made gains despite an improvement in UK consumer confidence to a two-year high.
  • US Economic Comment

    US Economic Comment

    26 January 2024 512 KB PDF
    • FOMC: on hold next week
    • QT update: taper unlikely in near term, but possible update in coming months
    • Inflation: significant progress, but further slowing required
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    25 January 2024 286 KB PDF
    • Bunds rallied as the ECB’s policy statement had a dovish tone and President Lagarde refused to rule out a rate cut in April, while the latest ifo survey signalled a deterioration in German business conditions.
    • Gilts also made gains as a survey suggested that UK retail sales were extremely weak in January.