London & NY Research

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    Daiwa Europe’s market-leading research on the Japanese economy.

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    Daiwa’s research coverage of the euro area and UK economies.

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    Daiwa’s coverage of the US economy from our colleagues in New York

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2023

2022

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  • US Economic Comment

    US Economic Comment

    9 September 2022 322 KB PDF
    • CPI preview: favorable noise, but still firm underlying pace
    • Household balance sheets: still in reasonably good shape
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    8 September 2022 399 KB PDF
    • Bunds suffered a massive sell-off, as the ECB hiked rates by 75bps, signalled further tightening “over the next several meetings”, and lifted the interest rate ceiling on government deposits.
    • Gilts also sold off as Liz Truss announced a plan to freeze household energy prices for two years with costs to be borne by the public finances.
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    7 September 2022 456 KB PDF
    • Despite an upwards revision to euro area Q2 GDP, Bunds followed USTs higher at the longer end of the curve as German manufacturing output declined at the start of Q3.
    • While sterling’s downtrend resumed, Gilts rallied, particularly at the short end of the curve, as tomorrow’s policy announcement from new PM Liz Truss was expected to reduce inflation significantly over the near term.
  • US Data Review

    US Data Review

    7 September 2022 160 KB PDF
    • International trade: sharp narrowing in the real goods deficit in July
  • US Data Review

    US Data Review

    6 September 2022 155 KB PDF
    • ISM services: a solid performance led by firm order flows
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    6 September 2022 423 KB PDF
    • Bunds made gains at the short end but losses further along the curve while German factory orders extended their losing streak and a survey signalled contraction in the euro area construction sector.
    • The Gilt curve also steepened as the detail of new UK PM Truss’s plans to freeze energy bills, to be announced on Thursday and have a big bearing on the outlook for inflation and rates, remained subject to speculation.
  • European Banks - Credit Update

    European Banks - Credit Update

    5 September 2022 1084 KB PDF
    • Rising interest rates will likely not solve banks’ profitability issues as headwinds persist 
    • Primary markets for both SSAs and FIGs were relatively active with issuers carefully picking funding windows. For FIGs, the market was predominantly accessed by high-quality names, including those from the periphery
    • New issue premiums remain firmly in double-digits
    • Secondary market spreads continued to widen in EUR and USD in response to the worsening economic outlook and continued expectation of rising policy interest rates
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    5 September 2022 473 KB PDF
    • While Germany services PMIs were revised down to flag recession risks, Bunds made losses after the German government announced plans for a new fiscal relief package and wholesale power prices rose after Russia indefinitely suspended the flow of natural gas via Nord Stream 1.
    • While the UK services PMIs were also revised down, Gilts also made losses, particularly at the short end of the curve, as Liz Truss was confirmed to be the next UK PM.