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9 September 2022
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- CPI preview: favorable noise, but still firm underlying pace
- Household balance sheets: still in reasonably good shape
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8 September 2022
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- Bunds suffered a massive sell-off, as the ECB hiked rates by 75bps, signalled further tightening “over the next several meetings”, and lifted the interest rate ceiling on government deposits.
- Gilts also sold off as Liz Truss announced a plan to freeze household energy prices for two years with costs to be borne by the public finances.
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7 September 2022
456 KB
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- Despite an upwards revision to euro area Q2 GDP, Bunds followed USTs higher at the longer end of the curve as German manufacturing output declined at the start of Q3.
- While sterling’s downtrend resumed, Gilts rallied, particularly at the short end of the curve, as tomorrow’s policy announcement from new PM Liz Truss was expected to reduce inflation significantly over the near term.
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7 September 2022
160 KB
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- International trade: sharp narrowing in the real goods deficit in July
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6 September 2022
155 KB
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- ISM services: a solid performance led by firm order flows
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6 September 2022
423 KB
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- Bunds made gains at the short end but losses further along the curve while German factory orders extended their losing streak and a survey signalled contraction in the euro area construction sector.
- The Gilt curve also steepened as the detail of new UK PM Truss’s plans to freeze energy bills, to be announced on Thursday and have a big bearing on the outlook for inflation and rates, remained subject to speculation.
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5 September 2022
1084 KB
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- Rising interest rates will likely not solve banks’ profitability issues as headwinds persist
- Primary markets for both SSAs and FIGs were relatively active with issuers carefully picking funding windows. For FIGs, the market was predominantly accessed by high-quality names, including those from the periphery
- New issue premiums remain firmly in double-digits
- Secondary market spreads continued to widen in EUR and USD in response to the worsening economic outlook and continued expectation of rising policy interest rates
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5 September 2022
473 KB
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- While Germany services PMIs were revised down to flag recession risks, Bunds made losses after the German government announced plans for a new fiscal relief package and wholesale power prices rose after Russia indefinitely suspended the flow of natural gas via Nord Stream 1.
- While the UK services PMIs were also revised down, Gilts also made losses, particularly at the short end of the curve, as Liz Truss was confirmed to be the next UK PM.
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