London & NY Research

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    Daiwa Europe’s market-leading research on the Japanese economy.

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    Daiwa’s research coverage of the euro area and UK economies.

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    Daiwa’s coverage of the US economy from our colleagues in New York

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2024

2023

  • US Data Review

    US Data Review

    26 March 2024 374 KB PDF
    • Durable goods orders: sideways trend in orders ex-transportation; shipments data suggests drag from equipment spending on GDP growth in Q1
    • Consumer confidence: little changed from downward-revised reading
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    22 March 2024 317 KB PDF
    • While the German ifo survey flagged an improved business climate at end-Q1, Bunds made gains as Bundesbank President Nagel suggested that rates could possibly be cut in June.
    • Gilts also made gains as UK retail sales were unchanged in February, and the GfK survey suggested a decline in purchase intentions in March.
  • US Economic Comment

    US Economic Comment

    22 March 2024 545 KB PDF
    • Forecast update: avoiding recession, at least for now
    • Monetary policy: sticky inflation prevents more forceful near-term cuts, while the outlook for rates remains highly uncertain
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    21 March 2024 326 KB PDF
    • Bunds made gains as the flash euro area PMIs signalled further economic stabilisation in March but ongoing contraction in the German economy.
    • While the BoE kept rates unchanged and the flash UK PMIs signalled ongoing recovery momentum, Gilts made gains as no MPC member voted for a rate hike for the first time since September 2021.
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    20 March 2024 351 KB PDF
    • Longer-dated Bunds made modest gains even as ECB President Lagarde insisted that the Governing Council would not pre-commit to any particular future path in rates and euro area consumer confidence rose to its highest level in more than two years.
    • Gilts made larger gains as UK inflation fell a touch further than the BoE and market consensus expected.
  • US FOMC Review

    US FOMC Review

    20 March 2024 380 KB PDF
    • FOMC: target range for federal funds rate unchanged at 5.25 to 5.50 percent; cuts contingent on inflation developments
    • SEP: economic growth in 2024-26 adjusted higher from prior forecast; faster core inflation expected in 2024
    • Dot plot: median dot remained at 4.625 percent in 2024; shallower path of cuts anticipated in 2025 and 2026
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    18 March 2024 277 KB PDF
    • While final euro area HICP figures maintained a downwards trend in headline and core inflation, Bunds made modest losses as services inflation was revised marginally higher from the flash estimate.
    • Gilts made modest gains on a quiet day for UK economic news.
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    15 March 2024 359 KB PDF
    • Bunds made modest losses even as a German survey reported a notable drop in household medium-term inflation expectations.
    • Gilts also posted marginal losses while a BoE survey suggested that household inflation expectations remain relatively well anchored.