London & NY Research

  • JAPAN

    Daiwa Europe’s market-leading research on the Japanese economy.

  • EUROPE

    Daiwa’s research coverage of the euro area and UK economies.

  • US

    Daiwa’s coverage of the US economy from our colleagues in New York

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2024

2023

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  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    14 December 2023 265 KB PDF
    • Euro area government bonds followed USTs higher even as the ECB left its forward rate guidance unchanged and announced an early end to full reinvestment of proceeds of its maturing PEPP bond-holdings.
    • Gilts also made gains even as the BoE maintained a tightening bias and three MPC members vote for a rate hike.
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    13 December 2023 303 KB PDF
    • Bunds made gains as the euro area’s industrial sector remained in recession at the start of Q4.
    • Gilts made larger gains as UK GDP fell more than expected in October, with a broad-based decline across the major sectors.
  • US FOMC Review

    US FOMC Review

    13 December 2023 373 KB PDF
    • FOMC: target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 5.25 to 5.50 percent, the likely peak for the current cycle
    • September: inflation nudged lower in 2024 & 2025; economic growth a bit slower in 2024
    • Dot Plot: signaling 75 basis points in cuts in 2024
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    12 December 2023 270 KB PDF
    • Bunds made gains as the ZEW survey suggested that investor expectations of German business conditions have improved to a nine-month high on expectations of cooling inflation and lower rates.
    • Gilts outperformed as UK pay growth moderated while payrolls fell slightly and jobless claims rose again.
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    8 December 2023 334 KB PDF
    • Bunds followed USTs lower but the final estimates of German inflation in November confirmed a broad-based easing of price pressures.
    • Gilts also made losses despite survey evidence of a significant softening of conditions in the UK labour market.
  • US Economic Comment

    US Economic Comment

    8 December 2023 517 KB PDF
    • November employment: solid payroll growth; drop in the unemployment rate
    • Fed Preview: FOMC to proceed cautiously; no suggestion of imminent pivot
    • Consumer Sentiment: rebound in December; inflation expectations settle
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    7 December 2023 279 KB PDF
    • Bunds made modest gains as German industrial production contracted for a fifth consecutive month, while the drop in euro area GDP in Q3 was confirmed despite a pickup in final domestic demand.
    • Gilts followed USTs lower on a quiet day for UK economic news.
  • US Data Review

    US Data Review

    6 December 2023 302 KB PDF
    • Trade balance: nominal goods deficit widens, implying drag from net exports on GDP in Q4
    • Revised nonfarm productivity: upward adjustment to already-firm Q3 data