London & NY Research

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    Daiwa Europe’s market-leading research on the Japanese economy.

  • EUROPE

    Daiwa’s research coverage of the euro area and UK economies.

  • US

    Daiwa’s coverage of the US economy from our colleagues in New York

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2025

2024

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  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    27 February 2025 355 KB PDF
    • Despite an improvement in the Commission’s sentiment indices and a pickup in bank lending, Bunds made gains as the ECB minutes suggested that it was premature to discuss a possible “landing zone” for the deposit rate.
    • Gilts followed USTs lower on a quiet day for UK economic news.
  • US Data Review

    US Data Review

    27 February 2025 224 KB PDF
    • Revised GDP: modest changes; inflation readings adjusted higher
    • Durable goods: jump in aircraft orders boost the headline; shipments data suggest soft capital expenditures in Q1
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    26 February 2025 288 KB PDF
    • Longer-dated Bunds made small gains as German consumer confidence fell to an 11-month low.
    • Gilts were little changed on a quiet day for UK economic news.
  • Spain – Banking Sector Review

    Spain – Banking Sector Review

    26 February 2025 564 KB PDF
    • Years of consolidation have streamlined Spain’s banking sector into 10 groups, with the top five controlling 84% of domestic assets.
    • Higher rates have boosted earnings however, near-term rate cuts shift the focus to lending growth, deposit beta management, and revenue diversification.
    • Strong capital buffers, better underwriting, and years of NPL reductions have positioned banks well to withstand potential deterioration of the operating environment.
    • The windfall tax extension and new capital requirements are manageable, especially for larger banks with diverse income streams and solid capital generation.
  • US Data Review

    US Data Review

    26 February 2025 198 KB PDF
    • New home sales: latest drop possibly influenced by weather; prices move higher, underscoring affordability issues; inventories elevated
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    25 February 2025 295 KB PDF
    • Despite political discussion between incoming German Chancellor Merz and the SDP to increase defence spending, Bunds followed USTs marginally higher as euro area negotiated wage growth moderated in Q4.
    • While the UK energy regulator announced a chunky hike in household energy tariffs in April, Gilts also followed USTs higher as a retail survey signalled ongoing weakness in spending.
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    24 February 2025 341 KB PDF
    • Bunds made gains at the shorter end of the curve as the German federal election result raised the likelihood that CDU/CSU leader Merz will lead a two-party coalition government with the SPD but might struggle to find the numbers in the new Bundestag to amend the constitutional debt brake.
    • Gilts made modest gains across the curve on a quiet day for UK economic news.
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    21 February 2025 450 KB PDF
    • Bunds made gains as the euro area composite PMI signalled ongoing stagnation in February due to a questionable deterioration in France.
    • Gilts also made gains as the UK composite PMI remained consistent with sluggish GDP growth and firms signalled the steepest cut in headcount for more than four years amid weak demand.