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22 December 2023
561 KB
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- Inflation: continued deceleration in November
- Insights on Q4: solid consumer spending; neutral influence from equipment spending
- The housing market: still in a slump
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20 December 2023
409 KB
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- Despite a bigger-than-expected pickup in euro area consumer confidence, Bunds made gains while construction output maintained its downtrend.
- Gilts outperformed as UK consumer price inflation fell further than expected in November.
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19 December 2023
308 KB
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- Bunds made gains as the final estimates of euro area inflation in November confirmed a broad-based easing of price pressures.
- Gilts also made gains despite a slightly improved UK industrial sector survey.
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15 December 2023
327 KB
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- Bunds made further gains after the flash December composite PMIs unexpectedly fell, raising recession risks in the euro area.
- Gilts also made significant gains despite an upside surprise to the UK flash PMIs, which signalled a pickup in economic activity and persistence in inflationary pressures in the services sector.
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15 December 2023
355 KB
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- FOMC: distinct shift in tone, but the market may be getting ahead of itself
- Yellen comments: poor timing relative to Fed announcement
- Friday data: a sluggish performance in manufacturing, but the broader economy remains on track in Q4
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14 December 2023
265 KB
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- Euro area government bonds followed USTs higher even as the ECB left its forward rate guidance unchanged and announced an early end to full reinvestment of proceeds of its maturing PEPP bond-holdings.
- Gilts also made gains even as the BoE maintained a tightening bias and three MPC members vote for a rate hike.
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13 December 2023
303 KB
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- Bunds made gains as the euro area’s industrial sector remained in recession at the start of Q4.
- Gilts made larger gains as UK GDP fell more than expected in October, with a broad-based decline across the major sectors.
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13 December 2023
373 KB
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- FOMC: target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 5.25 to 5.50 percent, the likely peak for the current cycle
- September: inflation nudged lower in 2024 & 2025; economic growth a bit slower in 2024
- Dot Plot: signaling 75 basis points in cuts in 2024
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