London & NY Research

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    Daiwa Europe’s market-leading research on the Japanese economy.

  • EUROPE

    Daiwa’s research coverage of the euro area and UK economies.

  • US

    Daiwa’s coverage of the US economy from our colleagues in New York

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2024

2023

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  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    14 September 2023 313 KB PDF
    • Bunds rallied as the ECB raised rates but signalled the likelihood that the peak in rates has been reached.
    • Gilts also rallied as a UK residential property market survey indicated an acceleration in house price declines over the summer.
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    13 September 2023 250 KB PDF
    • As a report suggested that the ECB would revise up its 2024 inflation projection tomorrow, Bunds made losses despite a larger-than-expected fall in euro area industrial production in July.
    • Gilts rallied as UK GDP fell further than expected in July.
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    12 September 2023 290 KB PDF
    • Bunds made modest losses as a German survey signalled that investors are a touch less downbeat about the outlook despite increased expectations of contraction in Q3.
    • Despite UK wage growth remaining very high, Gilts made gains as today’s labour market data reported the steepest drop in employment since the first wave of the pandemic and, before that, the global financial crisis.
  • US Economic Comment

    US Economic Comment

    8 September 2023 555 KB PDF
    • Forecast update: brisk near-term growth, but odds still favor recession next year
    • Monetary policy: FOMC to maintain restrictive policy “for some time” to combat sticky inflation
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    7 September 2023 342 KB PDF
    • Bunds made gains as euro area GDP growth in Q2 was revised down and German industrial production fell for a third successive month.
    • Gilts also made gains as UK business inflation expectations moderated. 
  • US Data Review

    US Data Review

    6 September 2023 280 KB PDF
    • ISM services: firm in August
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    6 September 2023 274 KB PDF
    • Although German factory orders fell the most since 2020 and euro area retail sales also declined, Bunds followed USTs lower as some of the traditionally hawkish members of the ECB Governing Council suggested they might support a rate hike next week.
    • While the UK construction PMIs remained consistent with growth in the sector, Gilts outperformed as BoE Governor Bailey stated that rates are now “near the top of the cycle”.
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    5 September 2023 284 KB PDF
    • While euro area PPI inflation dropped to a 14-year low and the euro area services PMIs flagged recession risks, Bunds followed USTs lower as a survey reported a pickup in medium-term consumer inflation expectations.
    • Gilts also made losses as the UK headline services PMI was revised up and a retail survey beat expectations.