London & NY Research

  • JAPAN

    Daiwa Europe’s market-leading research on the Japanese economy.

  • EUROPE

    Daiwa’s research coverage of the euro area and UK economies.

  • US

    Daiwa’s coverage of the US economy from our colleagues in New York

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2024

2023

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  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    10 February 2023 576 KB PDF
    • Gilts made significant losses as UK GDP failed to contract in Q4 despite a non-negligible drop in December.
    • While a hawkish Governing Council member suggested that the ECB could end Asset Purchase Programme reinvestments in Q3, Bunds also made losses on a quiet day for euro area economic data.
  • US Economic Comment

    US Economic Comment

    10 February 2023 313 KB PDF
    • The inflation fight: will the Fed win?
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    9 February 2023 384 KB PDF
    • Bunds made gains as the flash estimates of German inflation in January came in below expectations, despite also indicating the likelihood of a modest upwards revision to euro area inflation.
    • Despite another downbeat UK housing market survey, Gilts made losses at the shorter end of the curve as BoE MPC members offered a range of views about the balance of risks to the economic outlook.
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    7 February 2023 414 KB PDF
    • Despite weak German IP data, Bunds made notable losses after the ECB announced it will adjust the interest rate ceiling paid on government deposits within the Eurosystem from 1 May, while Bundesbank President Nagel stated that further significant ECB rate hikes were likely after March.
    • Gilts made more significant losses even as UK surveys on retail sales and house prices disappointed.
  • US Data Review

    US Data Review

    7 February 2023 352 KB PDF
    • International trade: softer exports, firmer imports, wider deficit in December; But improvement in Q4
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    6 February 2023 434 KB PDF
    • Bunds followed the global trend lower as German factory orders beat expectations, but euro area retail sales fell sharply in December.
    • Gilts made large losses as MPC hawk Catherine Mann noted that risks to the BoE’s inflation forecast are skewed significantly to the upside, and reiterated that the next step in Bank Rate is more likely to be a hike than a cut.
  • European Banks - Credit Update

    European Banks - Credit Update

    6 February 2023 1158 KB PDF
    • 4Q22 earnings results of European banks have so far mostly been positive, exceeding consensus analyst views. The profit outlook remains firm in light of the constructive rates environment
    • Primary markets largely muted for FIGs as the earnings season continued, with a few SSA deals continuing to supply the market with Sterling bonds
    • Secondary market spreads tightened in EUR and USD as market optimism about the inflation and rate outlook improved
  • US Data Review

    US Data Review

    3 February 2023 224 KB PDF
    • Employment: strong payroll growth
    • Growth of average hourly earnings decelerates, but still brisk
    • ISM services: back within a comfortable range