London & NY Research

  • JAPAN

    Daiwa Europe’s market-leading research on the Japanese economy.

  • EUROPE

    Daiwa’s research coverage of the euro area and UK economies.

  • US

    Daiwa’s coverage of the US economy from our colleagues in New York

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2024

2023

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  • US Economic Comment

    US Economic Comment

    30 June 2023 477 KB PDF
    • Monetary policy update: hawkish comments by Powell affirm dot plot projections
    • PCE price index: little moderation in underlying inflation
    • Personal income & consumption: firm income growth, but spending stalls
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    29 June 2023 329 KB PDF
    • While Spanish inflation fell below 2%, Bunds followed the global trend lower as the flash German inflation estimates confirmed a significant pickup in the headline and core rates.
    • Gilts also made losses even as UK households made a second successive net mortgage repayment and withdrew a record amount from deposits.
  • US Data Review

    US Data Review

    29 June 2023 388 KB PDF
    • Revised Q1 GDP: notable positive revisions to consumer spending & net exports
    • Corporate profits: softening from elevated levels
    • Pending home sales: third consecutive decline, but other segments of housing market showing signs of life
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    28 June 2023 288 KB PDF
    • While ECB President Lagarde repeated her key messages from yesterday’s hawkish speech, Bunds made gains as Italian inflation posted a broad-based decline in June and euro area net lending to households contracted.
    • Gilts made significant gains even as BoE Governor Bailey emphasised that UK core inflation was proving to be far stickier than expected.   
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    27 June 2023 267 KB PDF
    • Bunds made losses as President Lagarde insisted that ECB policy will remain restrictive for some time to come.
    • Gilts also made sizeable losses despite a survey signalling a moderation in UK shop price inflation.
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    26 June 2023 264 KB PDF
    • Bunds made gains as the German ifo business survey disappointed expectations, signalling a marked deterioration in the manufacturing outlook over H223.  
    • Gilts also rose as a UK retail survey pointed to underwhelming sales growth and a decline in orders.
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    23 June 2023 366 KB PDF
    • Bunds rallied as the flash euro area PMIs for June signalled a significant loss of economic growth momentum.  
    • While the flash UK PMIs also missed expectations, Gilts made losses at the short end of the curve but gains further out as retail sales rose for a second successive month and consumer confidence improved.
  • US Economic Comment

    US Economic Comment

    23 June 2023 509 KB PDF
    • U.S. economy: growth track in 23-H1, but possible (mild) recession in H2
    • The yield curve: inversion to persist in 2023