London & NY Research

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    Daiwa Europe’s market-leading research on the Japanese economy.

  • EUROPE

    Daiwa’s research coverage of the euro area and UK economies.

  • US

    Daiwa’s coverage of the US economy from our colleagues in New York

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2024

2023

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  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    14 November 2023 336 KB PDF
    • Bunds followed USTs higher despite signs of ongoing resilience in the euro area’s labour amid weakening economic momentum and signals from a German investor survey of some stabilisation in the outlook.
    • Gilts also made gains as UK labour market data signalled a loss of momentum in wage growth and a further decline in job vacancies.
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    10 November 2023 373 KB PDF
    • Bunds made losses as ECB President Lagarde noted in an interview that a cut in interest rates was unlikely in the next couple of quarters.
    • Gilts made losses as UK GDP data exceeded downbeat expectations, but merely suggested that economy moved sideways in Q3.
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    8 November 2023 299 KB PDF

    Despite a pickup in households’ inflation expectations, Bunds largely made gains as euro area retail sales contracted in Q3 and households remained gloomy about the economic outlook.

    Gilts also made gains as a UK labour market survey provided further evidence of a looser labour market.

  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    7 November 2023 284 KB PDF
    • Euro area govvies made gains, while German industrial production fell sharply as autos production went into reverse and a construction survey suggested a steeper pace of contraction in house building.
    • Gilts also made gains as a UK retail survey signalled a further decline in retail sales volumes at the start of Q4.
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    6 November 2023 270 KB PDF
    • Bunds made losses in line with the global trend, while an investor survey pointed to an improvement in the euro area’s economic outlook, but German factory orders fell sharply in Q3 illustrating still very challenging manufacturing conditions.
    • Gilts also made losses despite a downbeat construction PMI survey.
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    3 November 2023 343 KB PDF
    • Bunds followed USTs higher as euro area unemployment rose while German exports and imports fell.
    • Gilts also made gains as the final UK composite PMI aligned closely with the flash estimate to remain consistent with mild contraction.
  • US Economic Comment

    US Economic Comment

    3 November 2023 496 KB PDF
    • October payrolls: notable easing; downward revisions soften previously hot September print
    • Wage growth: both the employment cost index and average hourly earnings suggest cooling
    • The Fed: possibly done, although vigilant for premature easing in financial conditions
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    2 November 2023 311 KB PDF
    • Gilts made significant gains as the BoE’s MPC left Bank Rate unchanged with a larger majority than in September, and its updated macroeconomic projections showed that it expects inflation to fall below target by the end of the horizon.
    • Most Bunds also made gains as German jobless claims rose more than expected in October.