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UK inflation surprises on the upside in August

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • Japan’s core machine orders increased in July; Japan’s service sector activity unexpectedly contracts in July.
  • Japan’s Reuters Tankan points to a recent softening of business conditions.
  • Final French inflation data for August confirm flash estimates.

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UK labour market momentum remained strong

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • Japan’s IP contraction unrevised at 1.5%M/M in July, capacity utilization declines 3.4%M/M but up 14.1%Y/Y.
  • Bank of France survey suggests economic growth was well maintained.
  • Australia’s NAB survey reports a modest rebound in business conditions.

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Japanese firms expect improved conditions over the next six months

Chris Scicluna
  • Still to come in Japan this week, news regarding merchandise trade, services activity and machinery orders, together with the latest Reuters Tankan survey.
  • A quieter week for data in the euro area features July IP and final August inflation figures. A busy week for UK data brings updates on the labour market, inflation and retail sales.
  • Federal budget data ahead in the US today; thereafter, the next four days brings news on CPI inflation, IP, retail sales and consumer sentiment.

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UK GDP slows more abruptly than expected in July

Chris Scicluna
  • UK GDP surprises on the downside with growth of just 0.1%M/M as services and manufacturing output moves sideways and construction activity drops for a fourth month, bearing the hallmark of labour and supply shortages.
  • French IP growth continues in July while final German inflation data for August confirm flash estimates.

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ECB likely to slow pace of asset purchases in Q4

Chris Scicluna
  • Japan’s Suga set to announce a further extension of emergency conditions until the end of September; Japan’s broad money growth continues to slow as base effects wane.
  • ECB likely to slow pace of asset purchases in Q4 and revise up near-term GDP and inflation forecasts.
  • German trade data report further growth in exports but step down in imports in July; surveys suggest UK labour supply shortage became more acute in August.

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