Recent Blogs




UK Budget to provide near-term support

Chris Scicluna
  • Japan’s services PMI revised up 0.5pt to 46.3 in February, still tracking well below Q4 levels but detail signals firms see brighter future.
  • UK Budget to provide near-term support before a tightening of the fiscal stance next year.
  • Aussie GDP expands 3.1%Q/Q on Q4 as household spending and business capex recover, above RBA expectations but unlikely to cause the Bank to reassess its dovish inflation outlook.

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More signs of recovery in Japan’s labour market in January

Chris Scicluna
  • Japan’s MoF corporate survey reports an unexpected 0.3%Q/Q decline in firms’ capex in Q4.
  • RBA leaves policy settings unchanged, retains forward guidance of no lift in the cash rate until 2024 at the earliest.
  • German retail sales much weaker than expected with a further big drop in January.

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Japan’s manufacturing PMI revised higher, but vehicle sales decline

Chris Scicluna
  • Japan’s manufacturing PMI revised higher; Q4 capex and January labour market data ahead tomorrow and more sentiment indicators and news on consumer spending due later in the week.
  • China’s official PMIs disappoint again with both manufacturing and services softening.
  • German and Italian flash inflation data ahead today with equivalent euro area figures on Tuesday; German lockdown review will be of note on Wednesday.
  • Government’s midweek Budget statement the main focus in the UK this week.


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Japanese IP rebounds strongly in January

Chris Scicluna
  • Japanese IP rebounds strongly in January, probably influenced by LNY-related demand.
  • Japanese retail sales decline in January but by less than expected; housing starts post disappointing rebound in January.
  • Tokyo CPI points to no upward pressure on core prices in February.
  • French inflation falls less than expected in February.

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Japan’s department store sales down almost 30%Y/Y

Chris Scicluna
  • Japan’s department store sales down almost 30%Y/Y in January as pandemic restrictions weigh heavily.
  • Consumer confidence in Germany improves modestly but drops slightly in France.
  • Aussie bond yields and the Aussie dollar rise sharply as Q4 capex data beats forecasts, with forecast investment also revised higher.

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