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BoJ Tankan reports deterioration in conditions

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • BoJ Tankan reports deterioration in Japanese business conditions amid significantly higher cost pressures.
  • We expect flash data today to show that euro area inflation leapt to about 7%Y/Y in March, driven higher principally by energy and food prices.
  • The US labour market report is likely to confirm another month of solid growth in nonfarm payrolls.

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Japanese IP disappoints in February

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • The BoJ announced plans to increase the amount of bond purchases for maturities between 1-10Y in the coming quarter.
  • China’s PMIs signalled contraction at end-Q1.
  • French inflation exceeded expectations on higher energy and food prices with core inflation seemingly barely stronger and still close to the ECB's target.
  • UK GDP growth in Q4 revised up, and house prices accelerated at fastest pace since 2004.

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German and Spanish inflation smashes expectations

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • Japanese retail sales even weaker than expected in February, pointing to a significant drop in real consumption in Q1 as Covid-19 took a greater toll.
  • In the US, the ADP jobs report will be watched despite its unreliability as a guide for non-farm payrolls; final estimates of Q4 GDP to see minimal revisions from the previous estimates.

 

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German and French consumer confidence slump

Emily Nicol
  • Japanese labour market numbers reported a modest improvement in February, with the unemployment rate edging lower and the job-to-applicant ratio edging higher.
  • UK bank lending numbers likely to report a modest pickup in consumer credit growth in February as Covid-related restrictions relaxed.

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BoJ conducts unlimited fixed-rate purchase operation

Emily Nicol
  • Japanese data-flow this week set to bring soft retail numbers and a relatively subdued BoJ Tankan survey at the end of the week.
  • Flash estimate of euro area inflation expected to show headline HICP rate up 0.9ppt to a new record-high 6.8%Y/Y in March.
  • A busy week for US data with Friday’s labour market report the highlight and expected to show another strong increase in payrolls.

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