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Japanese IP confirmed to have contracted sharply in August

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • Japan’s IP declines 3.6%M/M in August, adding to the likelihood of a circa 2%Q/Q contraction in output in Q3.
  • China’s PPI inflation rises more than expected to a near 26-year high in September, but CPI inflation remains very subdued with the core rate rising a steady 1.2%Y/Y
  • UK RICS survey suggests that limited supply will continue to support house prices.

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Japan’s core private machinery orders slump in August

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • Reuters Tankan points to little change in business sentiment.
  • China’s exports rise a much stronger than expected 28.1%Y/Y in September.
  • UK GDP continued to narrow the gap with pre-pandemic level in August, to leave BoE rate call finely balanced.

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UK labour market report shows ongoing strong growth in payrolls

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • Japan’s annual goods PPI inflation rises to 13-year high in September.
  • Japan’s bank lending growth remains low and stable in September.
  • BRC survey suggests that UK retail sales continued to slow last month as confidence waned.

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Expectations of an imminent BoE rate hike mount

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • BoJ survey continues to point to a lack of public awareness of the inflation target; machinery orders, Reuters Tankan, final August IP figures and Tertiary index lie ahead.
  • Euro area sentiment, labour market and final September inflation readings ahead in the euro area. Key UK labour market and GDP data due this week.
  • Wednesday’s September CPI and FOMC minutes the focus in the US; followed by retail sales and consumer sentiment data.

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Japan’s real household spending fell in August

Chris Scicluna
  • Japan's MHLW labour survey pointed to a fall in hours worked, but higher bonus earnings lifted wages.
  • China’s Caixin services PMI rebounded in September.
  • German export volumes drop in August for fourth month out of the past five.
  • UK jobs survey signals strongest wage growth on 24-year series.
  • Non-farm payrolls the focus in the US today with Jay Powell merely seeking a ‘decent’ report to justify announcing the QE taper at next month’s FOMC meeting.

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