06 March 2023
Emily Nicol
,
Chris Scicluna
- Kuroda is likely to leave policy unchanged at his final meeting to try to maintain the squeeze on investors betting against YCC
- Fed Chair Powell’s semi-annual testimony to Congress will be closely watched for any hints on the likely policy path over coming FOMC
- ECB consumer expectations survey published this week
- The main UK release will be January GDP data, which are expected to report only very modest growth
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03 March 2023
Chris Scicluna
,
Emily Nicol
- Germany’s goods trade surplus rose to a near 2-year high; French manufacturing output started 2023 on the back foot
- ECB Governing Council hawk Wunsch flagged the possibility that the deposit rate might have to rise to 4.0%
- February services PMIs from the euro area and UK this morning are expected to reaffirm the signal of a notable rebound in activity in the sector in the middle of Q1.
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01 March 2023
Emily Nicol
- CPI estimates from Germany’s largest state NRW surprised on the upside, suggesting that German inflation is at greater risk of an unwelcome increase in February
- Nationwide reported that UK house prices fell for the sixth consecutive month
- Chinese PMIs came in well ahead of expectations in February
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28 February 2023
Chris Scicluna
,
Emily Nicol
- Deputy Governor nominee Uchida supported the notion that the new BoJ leadership should review policy before making any significant changes
- Japanese IP fell sharply at the start of the year as autos production went into reverse
- The flash estimates of French and Spanish inflation came in firmer than expected in February
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27 February 2023
Chris Scicluna
,
Emily Nicol
- Tokyo CPI figures (Friday) likely to report a notable step down in the headline rate in February as the government’s household energy subsidies came into effect
- Euro area flash February inflation estimates (Thursday) a key focus, with the headline rate expected to moderate for the fourth consecutive month, but core inflation likely to remain sticky
- A joint statement from UK PM Sunak and EC President von der Leyen this afternoon will announce a new Brexit deal for Northern Ireland, helping to reduce barriers to trade between Great Britain and Ulster while clarifying the role of the ECJ in the process
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