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China’s core CPI inflation weakens in January

Chris Scicluna
  • Japan’s goods PPI lifted by higher commodity prices.
  • China CPI falls 0.3%Y/Y in January, below market, as core inflation hits a new post-GFC low; however, higher commodity prices lift PPI inflation.
  • French IP drops more than expected at end-2020 while Germany’s final CPI numbers confirm record jump in January.

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Japan’s labour cash earnings down at end-2020

Chris Scicluna
  • Japan’s average labour cash earnings fall 3.2%Y/Y in December as winter bonus earnings decline and overtime hours worked remain weak.
  • BRC and Barclaycard data illustrate drop in UK consumer spending in January.
  • French economy broadly flat in January according to the BoF survey, German trade paused in December but up solidly in Q4.

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Japan’s Economy Watchers survey points to slightly weaker conditions in January

Chris Scicluna
  • Japan’s Economy Watchers survey points to slightly weaker conditions in January, but optimism of some improvement ahead.
  • German manufacturing production continued to grow in December.
  • News on inflation expectations, housing and manufacturing ahead in NZ.

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Japan's real consumer spending declines

Chris Scicluna
  • Japan real consumer spending declines in December, but up strongly in Q4; leading index declines in December for the first time since May.
  • German factory orders fell more than anticipated at the end of 2020.
  • Pullback in Aussie retail sales at end-2020 confirmed, but firm over Q4 as a whole.
  • RBA’s Lowe emphasises tightening likely to be distant with new forecasts showing underlying inflation below 2%Y/Y in mid-2023 even in an upside growth scenario.

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BoE to leave policy unchanged and be relatively sanguine about economic outlook

Chris Scicluna
  • BoE to leave policy unchanged and be relatively sanguine about economic outlook.
  • Negative rates likely to be retained as option, but economic case for requiring them likely to be downplayed.
  • Aussie tade surplus widens in Q4, but driven by a sharp improveent in the terms of trade.
  • Kiwi business sentiment rises and inflation pressures stir; dwelling approvals increase to a new record high.

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