23 March 2023
Emily Nicol
,
Chris Scicluna
- Reuters Tankan survey signals persisting divergence in conditions for Japanese manufacturers and non-manufacturers
- Commission’s consumer confidence index likely to report only a modest improvement in sentiment amid ongoing uncertainties
- US weekly jobless claims figures due alongside February new home sales figures and the Kansas Fed national activity indices
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22 March 2023
Emily Nicol
,
Chris Scicluna
- UK inflation figures strengthened the case for a further rate hike, with headline inflation unexpectedly rising on the back of record monthly price increases in food, core goods and, most importantly, services
- With financial markets having stabilised to some extent, the FOMC is now widely expected to raise rates by a further 25bps taking the FFR target range to 4.75-5.00%
- Bundesbank President Nagel this morning suggested in an interview that the Governing Council must be ‘more stubborn’ in its fight against inflation
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20 March 2023
Emily Nicol
,
Chris Scicluna
- Given concerns about the inflation outlook, our colleagues at Daiwa America still forecast further tightening of 25bps taking the FFR range to 4.75-5.00%
- We expect the BoE’s monetary policy decision on Thursday also to deliver an increase of 25bps taking Bank Rate to 4.25%
- ECB policymakers’ comments this week will be scrutinised for further insights into the near-term policy path
- Japanese February CPI inflation data (Friday) expected to report a notable easing in the headline rate on the back of government household energy support measures
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17 March 2023
Emily Nicol
,
Chris Scicluna
- Japanese union confederation Rengo reports significant increase in wage settlements from this year’s “spring offensive”
- ECB hawks Muller and Simkus signal their expectation that further hikes will be required.
- BoE inflation attitudes survey should report slight easing in household inflation expectations this quarter.
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16 March 2023
Emily Nicol
- All eyes will be on the ECB policy announcement, where it remains to be seen whether policy-makers will follow through with its pre-committed 50bps hike
- Japan’s trade deficit narrowed sharply in February
- Japanese machine orders surged in January to their highest level in six months
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