Recent Blogs




New state of emergency to be declared for Tokyo & Osaka

Chris Scicluna
  • A likely uneventful ECB meeting ahead in the euro area, as well as the Commission's flash April consumer confidence indicator and business survey results from France.
  • UK business sentiment likely to have improved markedly in today’s CBI survey.
  • US data hiatus ends with the release of jobless claims, existing home sales, the leading index and manufacturing survey data; more earnings reports due too.

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UK CPI inflation up a little less than expected

Chris Scicluna
  • BoJ survey points to slight increase in business loan demand due to pandemic stresses; credit conditions continue to gradually ease.
  • UK CPI inflation up a little less than expected, as rising food and clothes prices are offset slightly by food.
  • Australian retail sales rebound 1.4%M/M in March, but little changed in Q1.

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UK labour market still broadly stable

Chris Scicluna
  • BoJ Financial System Review points to the usual “stability as a whole”.
  • Japan’s service sector activity increases in February but on track for Q1 decline.
  • PBoC’s 1-year and 5-year loan prime rates fixed at 3.85% and 4.65% respectively.
  • German PPI inflation accelerates ahead of expectations, up 1.8ppts 3.7%Y/Y, a decade high on energy and copmmodity pressures.

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French retail sales edged higher in March, despite tightening of restrictions

Chris Scicluna
  • Japan’s exports rebound more than expected in March; tertiary sector index, flash PMIs, national CPI and BoJ financial sector reports still to come this week.
  • German politics still in focus as CDU/CSU battle approaches a conclusion and their main challengers, the Greens, set to unveil candidate for Chancellor.
  • This week’s ECB meeting should be uneventful; Friday’s flash PMIs the pick of the euro area data.
  • A busy week ahead for the UK with news on the labour market, inflation, retail sales and the flash PMIs to come.

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China’s Q1 GDP growth falls slightly short of expectations

Chris Scicluna
  • China GDP grows just 0.6%Q/Q in Q1 but up 18.3%Y/Y; March IP growth disappoints, but retail spending surprises with a 34.1%Y/Y gain.
  • Japan’s Reuters Tankan points to growing optimism in the manufacturing sector, non-manufacturing sector continues to lag with divergent trends across industries.
  • Rebound in EU car registrations in March confirmed.

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