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UK GDP data midweek to confirm drop in Q1

Chris Scicluna
  • Consumer spending reports of most interest in Japan this week ahead of next week’s Q1 GDP release; Economy Watchers survey and bank lending data also due.
  • UK GDP data on Wednesday to confirm drop in Q1 but firm rebound now underway; quiet week ahead for data from the euro area, with investor sentiment surveys and IP data due.
  • Wednesday’s April CPI report the initial focus in the US; PPI to follow on Thursday, while Friday will bring the April retail sales and IP reports and the preliminary UoM consumer sentiment reading for May.

 

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German and French manufacturing output lags recovery in orders

Chris Scicluna
  • Japan’s services PMI revised up to 15-month high in April. Japan’s labour cash earnings rise 0.2%Y/Y in March, first growth since February last year.
  • China’s trade surplus widens in April as export growth surprises to the upside. China’s Caixin services PMI rises 2.0pts to 56.3 in April.
  • No surprises in RBA Statement on Monetary Policy, but the Bank’s new upside scenario illustrates conditions that might lead to a rate hike in 2023.

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German factory orders beat expectations

Chris Scicluna
  • Japanese vehicle sales rise 22.2%Y/Y in April as favourable base effects kick in.
  • BoE likely to revise up near-term GDP forecast significantly but will also probably put off decision to taper to June.
  • Preliminary Q1 productivity and labour cost data ahead in the US today; Fed to release Financial Stability Report and more corporate reporting ahead too.

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UK vehicle registrations rebound in April

Chris Scicluna
  • Aussie dwelling approvals rise more than 17%M/M in March as apartment approvals surge; non-residential approvals also up sharply; composite PMI revised up to record 58.9 in April.
  • Kiwi employment rises 0.6%Q/Q in Q1, unexpectedly lowering the unemployment rate to 4.7%; RBNZ Financial Stability Report concludes that system is sound, but with vulnerabilities.

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RBA leaves policy settings unchanged

Chris Scicluna
  • RBA leaves settings unchanged, retains guidance that it expects no lift in the cash rate until 2024 at the earliest, with inflation outlook viewed only slightly firmer.
  • Australian trade surplus narrows in March as imports rebound; housing loan approvals lift strongly in March to record high, with loans to investors up sharply.

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