Recent Blogs




German GDP a touch firmer than previously thought in Q4

Chris Scicluna
  • Japan’s labour cash earnings fall a revised 3.0%Y/Y in December, while BoJ underlying measures suggest no obvious lift in the inflation pulse.
  • Aussie wage growth picks up more than expected in Q4, but trend still low; construction work posts small unexpected decline in Q4.
  • RBNZ leaves OCR at 0.25%, as expected, LSAP and lending programmes also unchanged.

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UK labour market broadly stable

Chris Scicluna
  •  China’s new home price growth picks up in January, especially in the larger cities.
  • UK labour market broadly stable around the turn of the year as government Job Retention Scheme provided support; pay growth at 12-year high only partly due to composition effects.
  • Aussie merchandise exports rise 13%Y/Y in January as metal exports soar.
  • Kiwi retail volumes fall 2.7%Q/Q in Q4 – payback for a strong rebound in Q3.

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China's prime lending rates held steady; Japan's services PPI falls

Chris Scicluna
  • Japan’s services PPI falls 0.5%Y/Y in January; holiday tomorrow, while IP, retail sales, construction data and the advance Tokyo CPI lie ahead on Friday.
  • China’s prime lending rates held steady; the official PMIs for February due.
  • Sentiment data and first February CPI readings ahead in the euro area. Tomorrow's abour market report the focus in th UK.


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UK retail sales plunge in January

Chris Scicluna
  • Japan’s composite PMI lifts 0.5pt to 47.6 in January as manufacturing recovery continues, offsetting further modest weakness in the service sector.
  • Japan’s CPI inflation picks up in January as travel subsidy impact unwinds and food prices rise; core inflation turns weakly positive.
  • Aussie retail sales rebound a less than expected 0.6%M/M in January.
  • Aussie composite PMI falls 1.5pts to 54.4 in February.


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Japan's GDP rises more than expected in Q420

Chris Scicluna
  • Japan’s GDP rises 3.0%Q/Q in Q4, above market consensus as business capex rebounds much more than expected. A busy week still ahead in Japan with data on trade, machine orders, sentiment and inflation to come.
  • Inflation and retail spending indicators key in the UK this week.
  • IP data ahead in the euro area today; key sentiment indicators, including PMIs, and ECB meeting account the focus later this week.


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