Recent Blogs




Will Renzi's referendum complicate Draghi's decision?

  • The market mood on Monday will be set by the outcome of Renzi’s referendum on constitutional reform, which risks a period of heightened political uncertainty in Italy.
  • Regardless of how those events pan out, on Thursday the ECB will announce an extension of QE and relax the rules of the purchase programme too.

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The euro area after Trump

  • While investors are pricing-in stronger US economic growth and inflation, the impact of Trump’s election victory on the euro area economy might be at best minimal and, quite possibly, harmful.

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OBR lays bare Brexit costs

Today’s Autumn Statement laid bare the expected hit to the public finances from Brexit. But despite expecting to borrow an additional £122bn over the next five years, fiscal policy will continue to weigh on growth.

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Chancellor constrained by Brexit hit to public finances

In the immediate aftermath of the EU referendum, with concerns about the near-term economic outlook at their height, the prospect of a sizeable fiscal stimulus package being included in the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement looked odds on.

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Easy does it for the MPC

The precipitous fall in sterling since 23 June, which has seen only the Mozambique New Metical and the Sierra Leone Leone perform worse, was a predictable response to the referendum outcome to leave the EU. 

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