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Fed hints at slower pace of hikes; focus turns to BoE

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • UST yields higher and USD stronger as Fed Chair Powell signals a higher terminal rate for the fed funds rate, despite the subtle hint of a slower pace of future hikes in the FOMC statement
  • BoE expected to raise rates by 75bps amid ongoing concerns about domestically-generated inflation
  • Euro area unemployment rate likely to remain at a series low 

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Germany’s trade surplus edges up in September

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • German jobless claims set to rise for the fifth consecutive month in October despite record employment level
  • UK shop prices increase at the fastest monthly pace since the BRC survey began in 2005 amid ongoing supply-side pressures
  • Fed widely expected to raise the FFR target range by 75bps for the fourth consecutive meeting to 3.75-4.00%

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All eyes on the Fed and BoE this week

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • Japanese IP declined in September as autos production went into reverse
  • Chinese PMIs disappointed in October as tight Covid restrictions continued to weigh on activity 
  • German retail sales beat expectations in September but downwards trend still in play

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BoJ maintains ultra-accommodative policy stance

Emily Nicol
Chris Scicluna
  • Tokyo core inflation surges to highest rate since 1989 due to higher prices of processed food and services
  • Initial estimates of inflation in October in the euro area member states are decidedly mixed, with big upside surprises in France and Germany’s largest state
  • Contrary to expectations of a contraction, German GDP grew 0.3%Q/Q in Q3; French and Spanish GDP slowed to 0.2%Q/Q in Q3

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ECB set to raise rates by 75bps

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • German consumer confidence improves very slightly, although remains close to historically weak levels
  • CBI distributive trades survey likely to signal ongoing weakness in UK retail sales at the start of Q4

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