Recent Blogs




Japan’s services PPI falls in May

Chris Scicluna
  • Japan’s services PPI falls in May but annual inflation rate lifts to 1.5%Y/Y.
  • BoE MPC meeting takes centre stage in the UK today although neither policy settings nor guidance are likely to change as coronavirus case numbers head in the wrong direction.

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Japan’s manufacturing PMI cools in June

Chris Scicluna
  • Japan’s manufacturing PMI cools in June with the output index below 50 for the first time in 5 months; services PMI firms a little but unsurprisingly still points to declining activity.
  • Preliminary Aussie merchandise trade surplus widens to record high in May as exports of metal ores continue to surge; flash PMIs soften in June but remain at very high levels.

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BoJ measures of underlying inflation highlight absence of pressures

Chris Scicluna
  • BoJ measures of underlying Japanese inflation highlight continued absence of price pressures despite developments in other major markets; nationwide department store sales increased 65.7%Y/Y.
  • UK public borrowing again surprises on the downside.
  • Aussie consumer confidence inches up last week, while payrolls jobs up almost 7%Y/Y in early June due to base effects.
  • New Zealand’s Westpac consumer confidence index rises 1.9pts to 107.1 in Q2, with the expectations index rising to a 4-year high.

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China’s prime lending rates unchanged in June

Chris Scicluna
  • Flash PMIs and Tokyo CPI of most interest in Japan this week.
  • This week’s euro area diary is dominated by top-tier sentiment surveys.
  • BoE MPC likely to retain current policy settings and guidance on Thursday, albeit with risks of a more hawkish tone.
  • Australian retail sales steady in May.

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BoJ extends pandemic support measure

Chris Scicluna
  • Japan’s core CPI (i.e. ex fresh food) up 0.1%Y/Y in May, first increase since March 2020, but the BoJ’s preferred core measure (i.e. ex fresh food and energy) remains mired at -0.2%Y/Y.
  • Contrary to expectations of further growth, UK retail sales drop in May, albeit remaining well above March and pre-pandemic levels.
  • German producer price inflation again beats expectations, up to 7.2%Y/Y.

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