03 February 2016
- While the euro area economic recovery continues for now, heightened global financial market turmoil risks denting business and consumer confidence and hitting GDP growth.
- Given the weakened inflation outlook the ECB will ease policy again in March. But whatever is announced seems unlikely to be transformative.
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29 January 2016
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- Kuroda once again pulled a headline-grabbing rabbit out of the hat, with the announcement of a ‘negative’ interest rate on excess reserves.
- But, as ever with recent BoJ announcements, the devil is in the detail.
- And today’s announcement could well mark the beginning of the end for a QQE programme that has proved successful in raising underlying inflation.
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11 August 2015
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- The BoJ appears overoptimistic about Japan’s economic outlook and we expect the 2% inflation target to remain well out of reach over the coming couple of years.
- But the economic recovery is probably just in temporary recess and we do not expect a return to recession. And we think the BoJ will continue to resist the urge to ease policy further.
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04 June 2015
- As the money runs out in Athens, signs are that the Greek Government is inching towards a last-minute deal.
- But the damage done to the Greek economy during the negotiations has been immense.
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30 April 2015
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- The Greek government’s reshuffle of its bailout negotiating team has raised hopes that a deal will be reached to avoid default and euro exit. And that remains our baseline scenario.
- But not least due to difficult domestic politics and the amateurish nature of the government, the risk of a disorderly end to Greece’s membership of the euro remains significant.
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