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UK retail survey points to negative trend in sales volumes

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • Chinese inflation remained very subdued in March, with headline CPI inflation easing to an eighteen-month low of just 0.7%Y/Y
  • Euro area retail sales likely to have weakened in February as consumer confidence remained relatively subdued
  • US NFIB small business survey due today, with the headline sentiment index expected to have slipped back in March

 

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BoJ’s Tankan flags further divergence in business conditions

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • Following last week’s euro area CPI release, the latest PPI and ECB consumer expectations survey will be of interest this week
  • UK final PMIs likely to confirm a moderation in recovery momentum at the end of Q1
  • Labour market report the highlight of a busy week for US economic data with payroll growth expected to moderate somewhat in March to about 250k

 

 

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Euro area headline inflation set for a sizeable decline

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • Tokyo inflation edged slightly lower in March amid a further moderation in energy prices; Japanese IP beat expectations in February driven by a further recovery in the autos sector
  • Euro area unemployment figures are likely to remain consistent with a tight labour market 
  • UK house prices fell for the 7th successive month in March 
  • Monthly personal spending, income and price deflators for February key focus in the US

 

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German inflation set to fall sharply in March

Emily Nicol
Chris Scicluna
  • The fall in Spanish inflation was also striking, with the EU-harmonised HICP rate almost halving to 3.1%Y/Y
  • The European Commission’s business and consumer survey results will provide an update on price expectations as well as economic conditions at the end of Q1

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Attention on inflation data out of Japan and euro area

Emily Nicol
  • Tokyo inflation figure for March on Friday likely to show a further modest easing in the headline CPI rate
  • Flash euro area inflation on Friday expected to report a notable drop in the headline rate due to base effects
  • UK bank lending figures midweek likely to report a further weakening trend in mortgage lending and approvals
  • US personal income and consumption figures at the end of the week expected to report only a modest increase in wages

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