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UK house prices resume downwards trend

Emily Nicol
Chris Scicluna
  • Japanese MoF survey implies that firms’ capital spending was stronger than initially estimated
  • German retail sales ticked up only modestly
  • Euro area inflation is expected to take a big step down in May
  • Latest UK bank lending figures likely to flag negative impacts from ongoing tightening of financial conditions

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Tokyo inflation surprised on the downside

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • UK retail sales returned to growth, with the firmest momentum in sixteen months
  • French consumer confidence moved sideways, but remained well below the long-run average
  • US personal spending and PCE deflators figures a key focus today

 

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UK inflation surprises on the upside

Emily Nicol
Chris Scicluna
  • This morning’s UK inflation data revealed broad-based intensification of core pressures
  • The Reuters Tankan survey signalled an acceleration in Japan’s recovery momentum
  • Germany’s ifo survey is likely to report a further improvement in conditions in the services sector
  • In the US, the FOMC’s minutes from its early May meeting will be published

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Japanese GDP returned to growth in Q1

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • Japanese GDP boosted by a recovery in consumer spending and tourism
  • Euro area final inflation figures likely to tally with the flash estimates reporting a slight uptick in the headline rate but slight easing in the core rate
  • US housing starts expected to decline in April as demand remains hit by tighter credit conditions

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Loosening of UK labour market conditions

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • UK labour market data provided evidence of a further loosening of conditions, but private sector wage growth momentum is still way too higher for the BoE’s comfort
  • China’s activity data point to a more subdued recovery than expected at start of Q2
  • Updated euro area Q1 GDP figures might well see the modest growth initially reported revised away on the back of the slump in IP
  • US retail sales and industrial production numbers in focus

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