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German factory orders weaker than expected

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • Chinese Caixin services PMI plummets to its lowest level since February 2020 to signal sharp contraction amid rising Covid cases and tighter restrictions.
  • Euro area PPI inflation set to rise to new series high; construction PMIs likely to suggest ongoing expansion in sector at end-Q1.
  • Fed’s minutes of its March policy meeting should provide further plenty of information on the FOMC’s plans to reduce its balance sheet.

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German goods trade data surprised on the upside

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • German goods trade data surprised on the upside as exports jumped on strong demand from other euro area member states, while shipments to Russia fell sharply as sanctions were tightened towards the end of the month.
  • The FOMC minutes from 16-March meeting and the ECB account from the 10-March meeting will be watched closely for further insights into the near-term path for policy.

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BoJ Tankan reports deterioration in conditions

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • BoJ Tankan reports deterioration in Japanese business conditions amid significantly higher cost pressures.
  • We expect flash data today to show that euro area inflation leapt to about 7%Y/Y in March, driven higher principally by energy and food prices.
  • The US labour market report is likely to confirm another month of solid growth in nonfarm payrolls.

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Japanese IP disappoints in February

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • The BoJ announced plans to increase the amount of bond purchases for maturities between 1-10Y in the coming quarter.
  • China’s PMIs signalled contraction at end-Q1.
  • French inflation exceeded expectations on higher energy and food prices with core inflation seemingly barely stronger and still close to the ECB's target.
  • UK GDP growth in Q4 revised up, and house prices accelerated at fastest pace since 2004.

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German and Spanish inflation smashes expectations

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • Japanese retail sales even weaker than expected in February, pointing to a significant drop in real consumption in Q1 as Covid-19 took a greater toll.
  • In the US, the ADP jobs report will be watched despite its unreliability as a guide for non-farm payrolls; final estimates of Q4 GDP to see minimal revisions from the previous estimates.

 

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