Recent Blogs




UK property market: More still than sparkling

Grant Lewis

The reignition of the UK housing market, led by London, has been a key factor behind the rapid recovery seen in the UK over the past year. Not only has it fuelled a renaissance in the UK’s recession-ravaged construction sector, boosting GDP growth directly, but it has also helped sustain, via confidence and wealth effects, what has been a surprisingly robust recovery in private consumption. But while this has fuelled a great deal of angst about a UK housing market bubble, as we point out in a special report on the UK’s housing market, a look at the data reveals that to be largely a function of London-based commentators reflecting their own experiences. It is definitely not the experience of the vast majority of the country. Look beyond Greater London and there are few if any signs of a housing market bubble.

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UK rates: No change in 2014?

With data released last week having shown the unemployment rate in the UK falling to 7.1% in the three months to November, just a tenth of a percentage point above the MPC’s forward guidance threshold, an awful lot of rubbish has been said and written about how this highlights the failure of forward guidance in the UK...

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Abenomics: What follows the Money? A Response

Response by Chris Scicluna, Head of Economic Research, to the presentation by Professor Shumpei Takemori at a seminar held at Daiwa Capital Markets Europe Ltd. on 16th January 2014.

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Abenomics: What follows the Money?

Shumpei Takemori
Professor of Economics
Keio University
& Visiting Scholar
l'Università Ca' Foscari di Venezia

This blog article is a summary of remarks made by Professor Shumpei Takemori at a seminar held at Daiwa Capital Markets Europe Ltd. on 16th January 2014.

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Italian and Spanish spreads: Further to fall?

Following a 2013 that saw euro area peripheral government bond spreads fall dramatically, 2014 has seen further reductions in funding costs. Spanish and Italian 10Y spreads to Bunds are now around 200bps, having ended 2013 around 20bps above that level. That compares very favourably to the start of 2013, when Italian spreads were almost 320bps, while Spanish spreads were close to 400bps...

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