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Worsening spread of Covid-19 in Europe to result in extension of restrictions

Chris Scicluna
  • Japan’s manufacturing PMI revised up to 50.0 in December, best since April 2019.
  • China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI falls to 3-month low in December.
  • Australian manufacturing PMI strong in December.

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Post-Brexit deal reached but agreement imposes new barriers to trade

Chris Scicluna
  • apan: Labour market improves unexpectedly in November, but IP flat, retail sales fall more than expected and construction data soft. Food prices weigh on Tokyo CPI.
  • China: Official PMIs soften slightly in December, but pricing indices notably firmer. Industrial profits continue to rise in November.
  • US: Economic data generally point to waning forward momentum in Q4, with personal spending and housing indicators weakening in November. Durable goods orders continue to recover, however.
  • Australia: Retail sales surged in November, as did imports, but credit growth remained weak.

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US Congress reaches deal on fiscal stimulus

Chris Scicluna
  • Japan’s initial FY21 budget confirmed at record ¥106.6trn.
  • PBoC leaves China’s prime lending rates left unchanged.

 

 

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BoJ to conduct assessment of 'further effective and sustainable monetary easing'

Chris Scicluna
  • BoJ’s preferred core CPI measure falls 0.3%Y/Y in November.
  • We maintain expectation that Brexit deal is likely to be near despite UK statement that negotiations are now “in a serious situation”, which smacks of tactics.
  • UK retail sales fell less than expected in November, consumer confidence firms.
  • Kiwi consumer and business sentiment improves further in December.

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Fed makes minimal changes to QE message amidst broadly unchanged outlook

Chris Scicluna
  • Aussie employment up 90k in November, driving unemployment rate down to 6.8%.
  • Euro area new car registrations down 12.5%Y/Y and 26.1%YTD/Y in November.
  • Kiwi GDP rebounds 14.0%Q/Q in Q3, above market and erasing pandemic decline.

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