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Fed set to cut rates for first time this cycle, but BoE & BoJ to stand pat

16 September 2024

Chris Scicluna; Emily Nicol
  • In a busy week for monetary policy decisions, the Fed seems bound to deliver the first rate cut this cycle, although the magnitude – 25bps or 50bps – is too close to call with certainty 
  • The BoE is likely to leave Bank Rate on hold, but the policy statement could well signal that a further cut will come at the following meeting in November and we do not rule out a cut this week if UK inflation data surprise significantly to the downside
  • The BoJ’s policy announcement is widely expected to leave the main interest rate unchanged at 0.25%, but Ueda might well leave the door open to a further cut this year

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ECB to deliver a further 25bps cut, while US CPI report in focus

09 September 2024

Chris Scicluna; Emily Nicol
  • The ECB’s policy announcement seems bound to deliver a further cut of 25bps in the Deposit Rate to 3.5%, while President Lagarde might also offer a more dovish take in her press conference in line with a more subdued outlook for economic activity
  • In the US, all eyes will be on the August CPI report, which will likely see the annual rate of headline inflation ease to 2.6%Y/Y the lowest since March, with core inflation unchanged at 3.2%Y/Y, the joint-lowest since spring 2021
  • A busy week for UK data will bring an update on labour market conditions and monthly GDP figures 

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US payrolls & ISMs in focus along with Japanese wage figures

02 September 2024

Chris Scicluna; Emily Nicol
  • Friday's US payrolls report will likely show a moderate pickup in non-farm payrolls following the slowdown in July with the unemployment rate possible declining too
  • Figures for euro area retail sales, German factory orders and industrial production will provide an update on economic activity at the start of Q3
  • Japanese wage growth is expected to have slowed slightly due to bonus payments but remain above the average of recent years 

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Key inflation estimates from the US, euro area and Japan in focus

24 June 2024

Chris Scicluna; Emily Nicol
  • Key inflation figures include the US core PCE deflator for May, flash euro area inflation  and Tokyo CPI for June
  • The European Commission's economic sentiment survey will provide a stock-check on Friday's disappointing flash PMIs

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ECB set to cut rates by 25bps

03 June 2024

Chris Scicluna; Emily Nicol
  • The ECB will cut rates on Thursday for the first time this cycle, but President Lagarde will downplay the chances of a further cut in July and will insist that future decisions will remain data dependent. 
  • US payrolls numbers are expected to have grown close to the more moderate pace of 175k seen in April having averaged 269k in Q1
  • Figures for Japanese wages, euro area retail sales and German factory orders are also due  

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