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German IP plunges to twelve-month low

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • The BoJ’s measure of real consumer spending slumps in August amidst record virus cases and restrictions.
  • The BoJ Regional Economic Report downgrades its economic assessment in 5 of 9 regions, but BoJ’s Kuroda maintains view that an uptrend remains in place.

Supply bottlenecks take their toll on demand in Germany

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • German factory orders plummet in August as supply bottlenecks take their toll on demand.
  • RBNZ lifts OCR by 25bps to 0.5% as expected, signals further tightening likely over time with the economy expected to lift again as restrictions ease.
  • In Australia, due to concerns about growth in credit and house prices, APRA announced that banks will be required to be more conservative in assessing new customers’ ability to repay loans.

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A rebound in fresh food prices drives a sharp lift in the Tokyo CPI

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • Japan’s services PMI revised up in September. BoJ estimates that negative output gap widened in Q2.
  • UK new car registrations record their weakest September since 1998.
  • RBA leaves all policy settings unchanged as expected.
  • Australian trade surplus surges to record high in August.

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Japan’s lower house formally elects Fumio Kishida as new PM

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • Japan’s monetary base growth continues to slow in September.
  • Much of the focus this week will remain on the US, not least on Capitol Hill and the debt ceiling impasse; on the data front, Friday’s payrolls report will likely provide the ‘decent’ outcome that Jay Powell is seeking to confirm the start of QE tapering.
  • Euro area calendar features producer price and retail sales data, along with the ECB’s account of its September policy meeting.
  • Australia’s trimmed mean inflation gauge rises to a 4-year high of 2.6%Y/Y in September.

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BoJ Tankan points to slight lift in conditions in Q3

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • Japan’s unemployment rate remains at 2.8% in August as employment and labour force decline equally; however, consumer confidence rises to a pandemic high in September.
  • Japan’s manufacturing PMI revised up to 51.2, but output and new orders indices confirmed sub-50 amidst supply chain bottlenecks.
  • German retail sales grow a little less than expectations in August.

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