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A busy week ahead for monetary policy

24 July 2023

Emily Nicol
  • Fed set to resume its tightening cycle, the ECB set to raise rates and again signal more tightening to come, but the BoJ likely to maintain the key policy parameters of its Yield Curve Control framework
  • Japan's composite output PMI suggested ongoing steady expansion at the start of the third quarter, while the German and French composite PMIs signalled contraction
  • The outcome of Spain’s general election over the weekend points to an extended period of political uncertainty

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Inflation features in the coming week

17 July 2023

Emily Nicol
  • China’s Q2 GDP fell short of expectations to suggest a slowing recovery momentum
  • Japanese CPI a key highlight this week, with headline inflation expected to have moved sideways in June
  • All eyes in the UK will be on Wednesday’s inflation figures, with the headline CPI rate expected to have eased
  • Final euro area inflation estimates are expected to confirm that the headline HICP rate fell to a 17-month low
  • June reports on US retail sales and industrial production are due this week

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BoJ Tankan signals improved business conditions

03 July 2023

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • Payrolls data likely to suggest a moderation in job growth in June; ISM surveys and FOMC minutes also due out this week
  • ECB consumer expectations survey and PPI figures to offer further insight into the euro area’s inflation outlook
  • BoE Decision Maker Panel survey results to offer further insight into UK firms’ output price and inflation expectations

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German consumer confidence softens

28 June 2023

Emily Nicol
, 
Chris Scicluna
  • French consumer confidence rises, despite a further weakening in household purchase intentions
  • Sintra discussion panel featuring Lagarde, Powell, Ueda and Bailey today’s clear highlight

 

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BoJ’s estimates of underlying inflation rise to new series highs

27 June 2023

Emily Nicol
, 
Chris Scicluna
  • Survey signals welcome moderation in UK shop price inflation
  • Lagarde’s keynote speech this morning at the ECB central bank forum in Sintra to be closely watched
  • Italian business and consumer sentiment expected to move broadly sideways, although risks are skewed to the downside

 

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