Recent Blogs




Japan's Q2 GDP: No show-stopper

Japan’s GDP plunged in Q2 at the steepest rate since the 2011 earthquake, with consumer spending plummeting at a record pace. But evidence points to a rebound in the current quarter. The BoJ won’t be panicked into easing policy further. And today’s data certainly do not represent a show-stopper for Abenomics.

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TLTROs: Never Mind the Placebo

The ECB’s TLTRO programme begins next month. While the funding should allow banks to refinance more cheaply, is it really much more than a placebo for the euro area’s economic ills?

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Euro area outlook: Firmer growth, subdued inflation

Our latest economic forecast shows a gradual strengthening of euro area GDP growth over coming quarters, as well as a narrowing of growth differentials between the major economies. This should help to keep deflation at bay. But it will not suffice to push inflation significantly higher either: CPI will remain some way below the ECB’s target over the coming two years. And, of course, the risks are skewed to the downside. 

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The Tankan and QQE: Carry on Regardless

Three months on from the consumption tax hike and Japan’s economy looks to be absorbing the shock as well as might reasonably have been hoped. That was the message from today’s Tankan survey.

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Sizing up the ECB’s policy package

Three weeks ago, the ECB announced several new measures to ease financial conditions, boost bank lending, push inflation higher and support the euro area’s feeble recovery. But have they had any meaningful effects so far? 

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