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Japan’s goods trade deficit narrowed

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • RICS survey pointed to significant negative momentum in the UK residential property market
  • As ECB hawk Klass Knot called for “multiple 50bps hikes”, focus in the euro area will be on the ECB account from the December policy-setting meeting
  • US housing starts are expected to have fallen in December

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BoJ defies market pressures

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • Japanese machine orders fell sharply in November
  • UK inflation fell for a second successive month in December, but core CPI remains sticky
  • Final euro area inflation figures likely to confirm a drop in the headline rate in December

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UK wage growth picks up further

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • Despite exceeding expectations, Chinese GDP stalled at the end of 2022 amid ongoing Covid-disruption
  • Japanese tertiary activity slips back in November, despite a boost from the government’s travel incentive scheme
  • ECB Chief Economist flags need for further tightening, but ready to pivot if the inflation outlook shifts
  • US Empire Manufacturing survey expected to report a softer pace of contraction in January

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All eyes on the BoJ's monetary policy annoucement

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • All eyes on the BoJ’s monetary policy announcement on Wednesday; given ongoing JGB market dysfunction, a further adjustment to the YCC framework cannot be ruled out
  • In the euro area, Thursday’s release of the ECB account from the December meeting will be watched closely
  • UK labour market and CPI data a key focus for the BoE this week, with headline inflation likely to have fallen sharply

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UK GDP beat expectations in November

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • The BoJ continued to fight against the market pressures against the current target, with extra fixed-rate purchase operations conducted today 
  • Chinese exports fell for a third consecutive month in December amid a steep drop in shipments to Germany
  • Euro area industrial production likely rebounded in November, albeit failing to reverse the drop the prior month to remain on track for a fall in Q4

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