Recent Blogs




UK payrolls edged up as Covid containment measures were briefly relaxed

Chris Scicluna
  • UK payrolls rose in December as containment measures eased but vacancies slowed.
  • Italian PM Conte to resign today but early elections still not expected.
  • BoJ December Policy Board minutes discuss adding flexibility to ETF purchases and YCC; also note importance of raising Japan’s growth potential.

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Upcoming FOMC meeting should maintain the status quo

Chris Scicluna
  • Q4 GDP report and PCE deflator the focus later in a busy week for US data.
  • In the euro area, Q4 GDP and January CPI data for some member states due later this week, with German inflation set to jump more than 1ppt. Labour market data the focus in the UK.
  • Japan’s key economic reports all released on Friday: IP, labour market, housing starts, consumer confidence and Tokyo CPI.

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Japan’s manufacturing PMI shows resilience, but service sector clearly weaker

Chris Scicluna
  • Japan’s flash manufacturing PMI falls modestly in January but services PMI hits a 5-month low. 
  • Japan's annual CPI rate falls deeper into negative territory in December, while department store sales remain very weak as pandemic continues to lower footfall.
  • UK retail sales post minimal growth in December despite easing of lockdown for much of last month.

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BoJ retains key policy settings and lowers FY20 growth forecast

Chris Scicluna
  • BoJ retains key policy settings, extends a couple of fund-provisioning facilities, lowers FY20 growth forecast but slightly upgrades outlook for FY21 and FY22.
  • BoJ Senior Loan Officer Survey points to mixed picture on loan demand; lending standards still easing but at a slower rate.
  • Australian employment recovery continues in December, lowering unemployment rate to 6.6%.

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UK CPI surprises on the upside and set to move higher in 2021

Chris Scicluna
  • Italy’s Conte survives Senate vote but support falls short of an outright majority; final December CPI figures ahead today in the euro area.
  • China’s benchmark prime lending rates left unchanged, as expected.
  • Australian consumer confidence recedes from 9-year high in January, likely due to virus news.

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