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BoE in “steady-as-she-goes” mode

Emily Nicol
Chris Scicluna
  • BoE less dovish, but no desire to tighten for a long time to come.
  • German factory orders comfortably beat expectations but remain well down on the pre-Covid peak.

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Success at the EU Summit

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • EU leaders finally reached agreement to allow the European Commission to issue €750bn of bonds, with a large share of funds raised to be disbursed to member states as grants. Japan’s latest inflation data broadly aligned with expectations, while the RBA Governor reiterated that scope for further monetary easing was limited.  

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Japanese exports remain extremely weak

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • Japan’s trade report predictably showed that external demand remained weak and domestic demand was lacklustre too. So, net trade looks set to have been the largest drag on GDP in Q2 since at least the global financial crisis. Focus later this week will turn to flash PMIs for July from the major economies.

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China's GDP rebounds in Q2

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • While China's GDP grew a stronger than expected 11.5%Q/Q in Q2, annual growth was still just half that seen in 2019 and the second-lowest since the series began in the early 199os.

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Return to UK growth proves a damp squib

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • UK GDP data for May were certainly weaker than expected, with the return to growth very much a damp squib, leaving output down almost 25% from the level before the pandemic hit in February. 

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