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The ECB waiting game

Robert Kuenzel; Chris Scicluna

Given the ECB’s aim to keep inflation “close to, but below, 2%” over the medium term, and with Draghi and his colleagues having repeatedly pledged to guard against a prolonged period of excessively low inflation, the steeper-than-expected decline in euro area CPI to a 4½-year low of 0.5%Y/Y in March and the weak April flash CPI estimate arguably demand a policy response. But when it meets tomorrow, the Governing Council looks to have enough excuses to continue to sit tight.

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The ECB’s waiting game

Robert Kuenzel; Chris Scicluna

Given the ECB’s aim to keep inflation “close to, but below, 2%” over the medium term, and with Draghi and his colleagues having repeatedly pledged to guard against a prolonged period of excessively low inflation, the steeper-than-expected decline in euro area CPI to a 4½-year low of 0.5%Y/Y in March and the weak April flash CPI estimate arguably demand a policy response. But when it meets tomorrow, the Governing Council looks to have enough excuses to continue to sit tight.

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UK property market: More still than sparkling

Grant Lewis

The reignition of the UK housing market, led by London, has been a key factor behind the rapid recovery seen in the UK over the past year. Not only has it fuelled a renaissance in the UK’s recession-ravaged construction sector, boosting GDP growth directly, but it has also helped sustain, via confidence and wealth effects, what has been a surprisingly robust recovery in private consumption. But while this has fuelled a great deal of angst about a UK housing market bubble, as we point out in a special report on the UK’s housing market, a look at the data reveals that to be largely a function of London-based commentators reflecting their own experiences. It is definitely not the experience of the vast majority of the country. Look beyond Greater London and there are few if any signs of a housing market bubble.

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UK rates: No change in 2014?

With data released last week having shown the unemployment rate in the UK falling to 7.1% in the three months to November, just a tenth of a percentage point above the MPC’s forward guidance threshold, an awful lot of rubbish has been said and written about how this highlights the failure of forward guidance in the UK...

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Abenomics: What follows the Money? A Response

Response by Chris Scicluna, Head of Economic Research, to the presentation by Professor Shumpei Takemori at a seminar held at Daiwa Capital Markets Europe Ltd. on 16th January 2014.

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